Catégorie: Unasur

Chili : Pinera remporte l’élection présidentielle 2010

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Dimanche 17 janvier 2010, les Chiliens ont voté pour élire leur nouveau président. C’est avec 51,6% de voix qu’au second tour le milliardaire Sebastian Piñera remporte les élections présidentielles face à l’ancien Président de gauche Eduardo Frei.

Cela fait exactement 20 ans que la droite chilienne n’était pas montée au pouvoir. En effet, le dernier représentant de la droite ayant eu ce pouvoir n’est autre que le général Pinochet. Malgré un bilan positif et une opinion publique favorable a 80 %, la présidente socialiste sortante,  Michelle Bachelet, n’a pas eu la possibilité constitutionnelle de se représenter.

Qui est Eduardo Frei ?

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Candidat de la Concertacion (coalition socialiste et démocrate-chrétienne) cet ancien président (1994-2000) et fils de président (1964-1970) peine à représenter le changement. Avec seulement 26 % d’intentions de vote, il est loin des 80 % de popularité de la présidente sortante Michelle Bachelet, qui ne peut se représenter.

Qui est Sebastian Piñera ?

pineda_167Il est le « Berlusconi Chilien », Requin des affaires qui a introduit les cartes de crédit dans son pays, il possède la compagnie aérienne Lan Airlines, contrôle à 100 % la chaîne hertzienne Chilevision, détient 16,8 % de Colo-Colo, légendaire club de football de Santiago, ainsi que des participations dans tous les secteurs de l’économie imaginables: bâtiment, immobilier, stations-service, distribution, banque, vignobles, télécoms, fonds de pension, etc.. En 2005, Sebastian Piñera avait été battu par la socialiste Michelle Bachelet, qui ne pouvait briguer un second mandat d’affilée.

“Aujourd’hui, la majorité des Chiliens ont parlé clairement et ils se sont exprimés pour le changement, l’avenir et l’espoir”, a dit Piñera depuis une scène montée sur la Promenade en face de son QG de campagne, sous un immense drapeau du Chili et entouré de son épouse Cecilia et de quatre enfants. L’entrepreneur élu président a convoqué la Concertation pour forger un accord de possibilité de gouvernabilité. “Je vais être un président d’unité nationale et je vais gouverner pour tous les Chiliens, mais avec un souci et une affection spéciale pour les plus humbles et la classe moyenne qui a tant besoin de cela.”

Piñera a promis de combattre le trafic de stupéfiants et la délinquance et pousser la croissance économique. Mais il s’est aussi engagé “à maintenir et à agrandir” le réseau social créé par les gouvernements de la Concertation. “Nous avons besoin d’un État fort et efficient, avec beaucoup de muscle et peu de graisse. Nous serons un gouvernement qui récupère la culture de bien faire les choses et de les faire avec le sens d’urgence. Il y a 600 000 Chiliens qui aujourd’hui n’ont pas de travail et qui ne peuvent pas attendre.”

Une victoire logique?

Cette  victoire qui aurait pu être empêchée. En Octobre 2008, la coalition gouvernementale de centre gauche perdait les mairies de la plupart des grandes villes au profit de la droite à l’occasion des élections municipales. Cette première grosse alarme aurait du forcer la gauche à s’unifier mais en politique ce sacrifice  ne semble pas être logique pour certain. Cette division a ainsi facilité la monté au pouvoir de la droite chilienne.

Serge Sedille

Le changement climatique, levier de puissance pour Lula ?

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La Conférence des Nations Unies sur le changement climatique, qui s’est tenue à Copenhague du 7 au 18 décembre 2009, s’est vue cristallisée comme « le » sommet de la dernière chance face au réchauffement.Le Brésil n’a pas ménagé ses efforts : élément moteur du sommet de Manaus fin novembre 2009, Lula a travaillé avec son homologue français Sarkozy sur la « bible climatique », duquel ressort la volonté de réduire de 50% les émissions de gaz d’ici 2050, ainsi que la promotion d’une Organisation Mondiale de l’Environnement capable de faire appliquer les engagements portés par les différents Etats-membres. La même thématique est traitée au sommet du Commonwealth, à laquelle participe le Brésil et la France. Le sommet de Copenhague ne fait parallèlement toutefois pas la une des médias du reste du continent. Les autres pays sud-américains semblent effectivement relativement indifférents à la nouvelle cause portée par le président brésilien.

A Copenhague, la confusion aura été au menu de ces douze journées. Maladresses diplomatiques de l’hôtesse danoise vis-à-vis des négociateurs désignés, discussions parallèles entre dirigeants, notamment entre les Etats-Unis et la Chine ou encore évacuation des ONG dès la neuvième journée alimentent l’actualité. C’est in extremis que les chefs d’Etat ébauchent un texte allégé à plusieurs reprises. Faute de consensus, le texte devra être représenté au sommet de Mexico qui se tiendra dans un an.

Les avis divergent quant au bilan à tirer de Copenhague. Les espoirs largement entretenus par les ONG et les medias complétés par les piètres résultats tendent à dresser un tableau pessimiste. Ce sommet permet toutefois de marquer les consciences des dirigeants étatiques sur l’urgence climatique avant le sommet de Mexico qui se tiendra dans un an. Néanmoins, l’activisme de certains pays contrastait étrangement face à l’indifférence d’autres, parfois plus attendus. Le Brésil, quant à lui, a fait figure de moteur. Applaudi durant son intervention, son président Lula a exhorté ses homologues à ne pas faire prévaloir leurs intérêts nationaux et à aider financièrement les pays en voie de développement.

Le Brésil est un grand producteur d’énergies renouvelables. En 2008, la part de la production en énergies renouvelables s’élève à près de 45%, contre 6% de moyenne dans les pays de l’OCDE. En matière de production électrique, celle-ci se compose, en 2008, à 83,4% d’énergies renouvelables. L’hydroélectricité y représente 79% et sa plus grande centrale, nationale, fournit près d’un tiers des ressources hydroélectriques. La biomasse est loin derrière, à seulement 4,3% de la production électrique du pays, soit tout de même 20 TWh par an.

Ce développement spectaculaire des énergies renouvelables est justifié par une politique d’indépendance énergétique en place depuis trente ans. Ainsi, sa capacité de production lui permet d’atteindre une autosuffisance avoisinant les 90%. Pour tendre vers cet objectif, le Brésil a ainsi lancé, dans le cadre de son plan pluri-annuel 2000-2003, un projet national d’un montant autrefois estimé à 43 milliards de dollars : Avança Brasil. Il a également contribué à la création d’initiatives continentales, telles que l’Intégration de l’Infrastructure Régionale Sud-Américaine (IIRSA). Lancée en septembre 2000 par le prédécesseur de Lula, ce projet vise à connecter les ressources naturelles avec les grandes villes du continent par des axes d’intégration et de développement régionaux, dont certaines d’entre elles seront connectées aux principales zones partenaires.

Ces initiatives ambitieuses permettent au Brésil de répondre à sa croissance en termes de consommation énergétique. Celui-ci fait donc office d’exemple en la matière. A la lumière de ces informations, nous pouvons donc comprendre le soutien de Lula pour les énergies renouvelables durant le sommet de Copenhague. Ce positionnement en tant que leader diplomatique sur le réchauffement climatique, une thématique d’envergure mondiale dont l’ampleur ira croissante, permettrait par ailleurs au Brésil de peser davantage sur la scène internationale. Les conséquences des décisions prises auront nécessairement un impact économique important. Le Brésil doit conserver l’avance technologique acquise en matière de biocarburants en l’exportant. Exportation largement facilité si un accord venait à être signé dans le cadre d’un sommet mondial. La simplicité d’implantation des biocarburants dans la chaine de consommation et son bas coût le positionnent actuellement en tête du marché.

Ces informations mettent donc en évidence les intérêts à la fois économique et diplomatique que le Brésil peut porter à la démocratisation mondiale des énergies renouvelables, à travers le message de la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique. A ce niveau, des ONG telles que Greenpeace lui reprochent de tenir un double discours. En effet, la création d’axes de transport pour la construction de centrales hydroélectriques a favorisé la déforestation (cf. le cas Belo Monte), augmentant de fait les émissions de CO2. Quant à la production intensive de bioéthanol, celle-ci expose la denrée alimentaire qu’est la canne à sucre à une spéculation boursière autrement importante. C’est d’ailleurs un des objectifs stratégiques du secteur privé et du gouvernement que de transformer le bioéthanol en commodity. Lula s’est pourtant verbalement engagé à atteindre des objectifs optimistes de réduction des émissions de CO2 d’ici 2020 : de 36,1% à 38,9% par rapport au niveau de 2005. La déforestation étant le principal accusé, c’est donc 80% de l’activité de déforestation qu’il faut réduire, la période 1995-2005 servant de référence. Or ce n’est qu’à partir des années 2000 que le phénomène prend une réelle ampleur pour atteindre un pic en 2004. Depuis, les chiffres ne cessent de baisser : la réduction n’est plus que de 34% si l’on compare cette moyenne au taux de déforestation de 2008. Cela relativise l’ambition du Brésil sur ce terrain. Cette ambition est d’autant plus relative que le Brésil est éligible au Mécanisme pour le Développement Propre. Ce mécanisme économique vise à attirer les entreprises technologiques à investir dans les pays en développement pour favoriser la réduction des émissions de CO2.

Dans la foulée du sommet de Copenhague, le président Lula a concrétisé ses paroles en promulguant une loi sur la limitation des émissions de CO2. Ce mois de janvier apportera des précisions sur les secteurs de l’agriculture, de l’industrie, de l’énergie et de l’environnement.

Isabelle Leguay

Equipe Unasur.fr

Interview de Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky sur l’Unasur

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Avant tout nous tenons a remercier Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky, spécialiste géopolitique et historien, chargé de recherche à l’IRIS sur l’Amérique latine et l’Espagne, pour avoir pris le temps de répondre à nos questions.

Il a été l’un des premiers experts français à s’être exprimé sur la question de l’UNASUR lors de sa création.

Aujourd’hui il analyse avec nous son évolution.

- Depuis la création de l’unasur, comment l’avez vous vu évoluer ? Peut-on parler de l’émergence d’une Puissance Supranationale ?

L’UNASUR est un projet d’unité du continent sud américain qui date bien avant sa création en 2008. Si on peut reconnaitre aujourd’hui que les pays membres de l’unasur ont démontré avec ferveur leur volonté de construire cette entité supra nationale, cela ne se fera pas sans difficulté. En effet, pour pouvoir bénéficier de la pleine puissance des ces pays membres, l’unasur devra avant régler de nombreux problèmes bilatéraux. Qu’il s’agisse du Pérou avec le Chili qui sont aujourd’hui devant la cour international de justice, ou encore du Vénézuela avec la Colombie, l’unasur doit d’abord montrer à la scène internationale qu’elle est doté d’une diplomatie stable et forte. Elle est, selon moi, à même de devenir un acteur très important sur la scène internationale lorsqu’elle aura confirmé son rôle fédérateur.

- L’image de Lula et celle de Chavez sont souvent présentées tantôt positives tantôt négatives, quel est selon vous le véritable rôle de ces hommes au sein de l’Unasur?

Lula et Chavez sont deux personnes assez différentes l’une de l’autre comme le Brésil et différent du Vénézuela. L’indépendance du Vénézuela s’est fait dans une douleur bien plus profonde que celle du Brésil et on ne gouverne pas le Vénézuela comme on gouverne le Brésil. Chavez est un orateur, un provocateur qui se projette dans le rêve de Simon Bolivar, et qui par de nombreuses tactiques diplomatiques reste au pouvoir. Chavez se veut être le garant d’une idéologie d’union contre « l’impérialisme » (capitalisme)  qu’il décrit comme élément le plus grave et dangereux pour l’homme et la Terre.

Lula (Brésil), est le véritable moteur actuel de l’unasur. Le Brésil a caressé le rêve d’être reconnu sur la scène internationale comme le pays leader du continent sud américain et avec ce projet d’unasur, il montre au monde qu’il en prend le leadership. De plus, dans les conflits bilatéraux, le Brésil a souvent participé à la résolution des conflits. Lula est fortement apprécié dans son pays contrairement a Chavez.

- Il y aura t-il une guerre entre la Colombie et le Vénézuela?

Dans l’état actuelle des choses, même si leur relation économique est gelée, leurs ambassadeurs ont rappelé que les pays d’Amérique du sud ne se font pas la guerre pour si peu. Ils sont coutumiers des tensions le long de leurs frontières, et la plupart du temps un pays tiers (souvent le Brésil) les réunis autour d’une table pour mettre fin à ces tensions. Il y a fort à prévoir que ce conflit prendra le chemin classique de paix après une intervention de l’unasur.

- La course à l’armement que certain pays d’Amérique du sud font n’est il pas révélateur d’une guerre imminente?

Les pays membres de l’unasur s’arment pour diverses raisons. Le Vénézuela s’arme de façon sur médiatique pour montrer au reste du monde qu’il n’est pas à prendre à la légère tout en montrant qu’il est allié avec des pays puissants (Chine, Russie, etc). Ici l’armement à une utilisation tactique en appui avec sa politique.

Le Pérou, le Chili, la Bolivie, et la Colombie, s’arment de façon préventive pour sécuriser leur pays face aux narcotrafics mais également pour dissuader les pays frontaliers de les envahir.

Le Brésil enfin, s’arme effectivement nous l’avons vu dans la presse française et sur unasur.fr mais dans une optique plus stratégique. En effet, le Brésil en quête de reconnaissance veut rejoindre les puissances mondiales. Avoir une armée forte et performante à la pointe de la technologie permettra au Brésil de participer aux missions internationales.

-Les opportunités de la France pour pénétrer ce bloc?

La France est l’un des seuls pays au monde à bénéficier de la présence d’une partie de son territoire dans l’enceinte même du continent avec la Guyane française. Si aujourd’hui Nicolas Sarkozy et son gouvernement ont cultivé un rapprochement diplomatique et économique entre le Brésil et la France, il n’en est pas de même avec le reste du continent. La France est le 4ème investisseur étranger du Brésil. La France a choisi de se focaliser sur ce pays car il représente une plus grande stabilité que ces voisins sud américains. Mais il est vrai que la croissance de certains pays d’Amérique du sud nécessiterait une plus grande attention de la part de la France. Il est clair aujourd’hui que la France n’a pas encore établi de stratégie en Amérique du sud et, comme de coutume, a tendance à porter son regard sur la zone de ses anciennes colonies d’Afrique et sur ses voisins.
Cordialement,

Serge Sedille
Equipe Unasur.fr

Dossier Thématique : Le Suriname face au réchauffement climatique

environnementDans ce contexte post-sommet de Copenhague qui s’est déroulé du 7au 18 décembre 2009, sous l’égide de l’ONU, qui réunis quelque 200 pays afin qu’ils s’accordent sur un nouvel accord international portant sur de nouvelles mesures pour lutter contre le réchauffement climatique qui devrait couvrir la période 2013-2017, intéressons-nous un peu à la politique environnementale surinamienne.

Les enjeux de la biodiversité surinamienne

Le Suriname appartient au « bouclier des Guyanes », regroupant également la Guyane, le Guyana, le Brésil et le Venezuela. Ce bouclier aussi appelé « plateau des Guyanes » abrite la forêt vierge tropicale humide la plus intacte et la plus célèbre du monde, la forêt amazonienne, où se trouverait à peu près 40 % d’espèces de la flore et de la faune mondiale.

Le Suriname dispose d’une des plus grandes biodiversités en plus de la plus grande forêt primaire du monde puisque sur son territoire l’on rencontre quelques richesses écologiques telles que la mangrove, des forêts de marécages ou encore plus étonnante une petite partie de savane en avant de la forêt tropicale.

Ce pays affichant un couvert forestier compris entre 94 et 95 % a également un taux de déforestation parmi les plus bas du monde car il a été l’un des premiers pays d’Amérique du Sud à instituer un système de réserves naturelles (recouvrant aujourd’hui prés de 13% de la totalité du territoire surinamien) dont la plus grande est « la réserve naturelle centrale du Suriname » qui compte 1,5 million d’hectares.

Récemment, ce petit pays sud-américain, comptant la plus grande surface de forêt par tête d’habitant, en collaboration avec l’organisation non gouvernementale Conservation International à adopter un plan afin de mieux protéger sa forêt et ainsi contribuer à la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique. Le principe est simple : les nations les plus pollueuses paieraient pour que la forêt ne soit pas exploitée. Cette initiative fut d’ailleurs reprise, il y a quelques semaines, mais dans un contexte un peu différent par l’Équateur avec un accord de non-pompage des 850 millions de tonnes de pétrole sous la forêt amazonienne contre une rente annuelle versé au pays.

Selon ce plan, présenté le 3 novembre 2009 à Barcelone lors de la Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur le changement climatique (UNFCCC) avec la collaboration de l’Agence Française pour le Développement, le Suriname recevrait des fonds qui serviraient en contrepartie à assurer le bien être de sa population, la politique de développement durable au Suriname et le reste viendrait du fond REDD (le programme surinamien de réduction des émissions de CO² provenant de la déforestation et de la dégradation forestière liée à l’activité économique du pays).

Selon Russ Mittermeier, le président de Conservation International, cette nouvelle stratégie verte du Suriname symbolise que le pays à réalisé le potentiel de sa forêt pour garantir son avenir et celui de la planète. Mais si ce projet surinamien semble avoir du sens, sa mise en œuvre, à la fois, juridique et financière s’avère compliquée sans compter que celle-ci ne pourra se faire que si, lors du sommet de Copenhague, les nations du monde s’accordent pour soutenir le projet REDD (certains y voit une tentative de chantage) sinon « le Suriname sera continuellement sous une pression économique visant à lui faire couper sa forêt » (propos de Russ Mittermeier, le 04 décembre 2009).

La biodiversité sur le territoire surinamien

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Source : http://lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/surinam_veg_1986.jpg

Les problèmes environnementaux

Comme nous l’avons vu dans le précédent dossier thématique sur le Suriname, l’orpaillage illégal, qui sévit dans toute la région, est à l’origine de la dégradation de l’environnement des sites clandestins et des alentours immédiats.

Utilisant la méthode d’exploitation la moins couteuse, du mercure se retrouve dans le sol et les rivières, le lavage des sols appauvrit les sols et des vapeurs de mercure se respirent à proximité des sites aurifères. D’après une étude scientifique, on estime qu’entre 10 à 60 tonnes de mercure sont lâchées chaque année dans la nature par les orpailleurs empoisonnant ainsi la nature et les hommes.

De même, comme nous l’avons également précédemment vu, les mines de bauxite qui sont à l’origine d’une manne financière très importante pour le pays dégradent l’environnement. Les mines quasi épuisées de l’est du pays ont causé des dégâts importants mais c’est surtout le nouvel immense projet d’exploitation des réserves des montagnes de BAKHUYS, à l’ouest, qui préoccupe les écologistes.

Enfin, la plupart de la population (76 %) et des terres productives se situent 10 m en-dessus du niveau de la mer et prés de la côte, les mangroves sont menacées par l’utilisation trop abondante de pesticides utilisées dans les plantations de bananes ou de rizicultures.

Répartition de la population au Suriname

Source : http://lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/surinam_pop_1968.jpg

Répartition de l’activité économique sur le territoire du Suriname

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Source : http://lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/surinam_econ_1968.jpg

Les acteurs

Le mini-sommet de Manaus

Différents acteurs qui sont soient locaux, mondiaux ou encore régionaux se préoccupent de plus en plus de la politique environnementale du Suriname puisque ce dernier est recouvert en bonne partie par le « poumon du monde ».

Ainsi, un mini-sommet préalable à la Conférence mondiale de Copenhague sur le climat a eu lieu le 26 novembre 2009 à Manus (« la capitale de l’Amazonie brésilienne ») au nord du Brésil. Le mot d’ordre était simple: « convaincre les pays amazoniens d’agir vite et fort contre le réchauffement climatique ». Autant dit que ce mini-sommet avoir pour objectif de promouvoir un message fort et ambitieux.

Outre le Brésil (pays organiseur de ce sommet), il y eu huit autres états signataires du Traité de Coopération de l’Amazonie (TCA) soit le Venezuela, la Colombie, le Pérou (représenté par son vice-président), la Bolivie (représenté par un envoyé du président Evo Morales), le Guyana, l’Equateur et le Surinam (représentés par un ministre), et enfin la France invitée par le président brésilien Lula car représentant la Guyane française qui partage 700 km de frontière avec l’Amazonie et qui a été récemment reconnue par les autres pays de la région comme «un Etat amazonien».

Ce mini-sommet fait suite au programme «Biodiversité et gestion durable des forêts du plateau des Guyanes» dirigé par une mission conjointe du Ministère de l’Ecologie (MEEDDAT) et du secrétariat du FFEM au Suriname et en Guyane qui eu lieu du 7 au 13 décembre 2008 dans lequel l’objectif était de préserver l’intégrité des écosystèmes forestiers et aquatiques du plateau des Guyanes. Objectif partagé entre quatre pays : le Suriname, le Guyana, la Guyane française et le Brésil.

OFRTP-FRANCE-BRESIL-CLIMAT-20091126

Source : http://www.lexpress.fr/actualites/2/duo-sarkozy-lula-pour-un-sommet-amazonien-a-minima_831439.html

Le programme national REDD

Aujourd’hui plus de 37 pays dans le monde se sont dotés d’une stratégie forestière en lien avec la protection de la faune et la flore. Pour le Suriname, ce programme environnemental se nomme REDD (Réduction des Emissions dues à la Déforestation et à la Dégradation des forêts).

Lors de la 74e session de L’ONU, en date du 25 septembre 2009, RAMDIEN SARDJOE, le Vice-président du Suriname, a dit espérer un accord à Copenhague, en ajoutant que les pays historiquement responsables des émissions devraient prendre la tête du mouvement et a assuré que le Suriname continuerait ses efforts pour exploiter ses forêts de manière durable

Le vice-président a également estimé que « l’urgence qu’implique la menace climatique rend nécessaire un engagement aussi fort que dans des domaines tels que les droits de l’homme, le maintien de la paix ou la lutte contre le terrorisme international » plaidant un accord multilatéralisme.

Il termina en rappelant que selon le rapport du groupe de travail sur le financement provisoire de la réduction des émissions dues à la déforestation, pour la période allant de 2010 à 2015, une somme de 15 à 25 milliards de dollars permettrait une réduction de 25% des taux de déforestation annuels.

L’intervention du Saint-Père

Plus atypique, le 20 novembre 2009, le président du Suriname, Runaldo Ronald Venetiaan, en visite au Vatican, s’est entretenu avec .le Saint-Père Benoit XVI, puis avec le cardinal secrétaire d’Etat, Tarcisio Bertone, et le secrétaire pour les relations avec les Etats, Dominique Mamberti. Quelques aspects de la situation au Suriname ont été évoqués telles qu’en particulier les politiques sociales mises en œuvre par le gouvernement sur la sauvegarde de l’environnement, ainsi que les domaines de collaboration entre l’Eglise et l’Etat comme nous l’indique un communiqué publié par le Bureau de presse du Saint-Siège.

La seconde édition du Festival d’art de la forêt amazonienne

Enfin, localement, la deuxième édition du « Festival d’art de la forêt amazonienne », qui a eu lieu du 19 au 22 novembre 2009, organisé par la fondation centre culturel du Surinam à Paramaribo, a choisi cette année le thème du réchauffement climatique. Pendant ses 4 jours se dérouleront des spectacles de danse, de musique, de théâtre, des débats et des films afin de développer la prise de conscience de la population sur la nécessité de préserver la forêt tropicale.

PARIZON Laëtitia

Sources :

http://www.un.org/News/fr-press/docs/2009/AG10863.doc.htm

http://www.ddmagazine.com/200911041544/Actualites-du-developpement-durable/Rechauffement-faut-il-payer-le-Suriname-pour-ne-pas-flinguer-la-planete.html

http://www.goodplanet.info/goodplanet/index.php/fre/Zones/Etat-du-monde/Pays2/Suriname2/(theme)/

http://www.franceguyane.fr/actualite/culture-et-patrimoine/la-foret-amazonienne-a-l-honneur-19-10-2009-40390.php

http://www.kipa-apic.ch/index.php?pw=&na=0,0,0,0,f&ki=201487

http://www.lefigaro.fr/environnement/2009/11/27/01029-20091127ARTFIG00348-climat-peu-de-chefs-d-etat-au-sommet-amazonien-.php

Les Farc égorgent un gouverneur colombien

DON_LUIS

Lundi 21 décembre à 22 heures, un commando des FARC  s’est introduit dans la maison du gouverneur du département de Caqueta. Lançant une grenade, les guérilleros ont tué un policier et en ont blessé deux autres avant de capturer le gouverneur Luis Francisco Cuellar agé alors de 67 ans. Amené en voiture dans une direction inconnue, il fut égorgé le lendemain.

Cela faisait 7 ans qu’un ‘enlèvement d’un haut représentant de l’État n’avait pas eu lieu en Colombie. Alors que la politique du président Uribe se base essentiellement sur la « Sécurité Démocratique »  qui vise à mettre un terme aux activités terroriste des Farcs et aux narcotraffics , elle se voit aujourd’hui mise en déroute par cette opération.

La Colombie est en guerre avec les FARC depuis 40 ans. Ces derniers et détiennent encore au moins 24 otages dits politiques qu’elle souhaite échanger contre plusieurs centaines de leurs combattants emprisonnés.

D’une autre part, cette attaque pourrait confirmer la nécessité d’aide étrangère pour la lutte contre les FARC, et légitimerait presque, la présence des bases américaines en Colombie. Espérons que la Colombie ne prenne pas une position de victime du terrorisme pour recueillir de la sympathie  sur le plan international mais qu’elle  va plutôt réagir efficacement sur un plan national.

Le président colombien Alvaro Uribe avait demandé mardi à l’armée d’intervenir pour libérer le gouverneur du département de Caqueta dans le sud de la Colombie, Luis Francisco Cuellar, et avait même proposer 350 000 euros  à celui qui donnerait des informations sur la localisation du gouverneur.

« J’ai demandé aux forces armées qu’elles fassent tous les efforts possibles pour sauver le gouverneur de Caqueta et les autres otages qui sont aux mains de ces bandits. Il faut tout faire sur les plans militaire et policier pour la libération. Nous ne pouvons pas dépendre des caprices des terroristes« , a déclaré M. Uribe

Auteur : Serge Sedille

Équipe : Unasur.fr

Les BRICs face à la crise

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BRICs, derrière ce sigle obscur se cache l’acronyme des grands pays émergents de la planète : Brésil, Russie, Inde et Chine. Alors que depuis une décennie les économistes se battent pour savoir s’il faut considérer les BRICs comme un ensemble économiquement homogène suivant les mêmes tendances quelle que soit leur aire géographique, la crise est venue les affecter comme le reste du monde. C’est justement à cause de, ou grâce à, la crise que l’on a pu se rendre compte de la différence existant entre ces quatre Etats, chacun vivant l’économie à sa manière et ayant été plus ou moins impacté par les récentes difficultés.

La Russie souffre de sa dépendance au marché extérieur

Parmi les BRICs c’est la Russie qui a le plus souffert de la crise financière. Depuis longtemps les géoéconomistes avertissaient la Russie que sa trop grande dépendance aux exportations et notamment celles d’hydrocarbures allaient conduire le pays dans une zone de troubles si jamais un retournement de conjoncture venait à avoir lieu. La baisse du prix des produits pétroliers, ainsi que celle du gaz, sous l’effet de plusieurs facteurs a créé, avant même l’effet « subprimes », une baisse de la croissance russe. Le réchauffement constaté depuis quelques années, la volonté politique des pays européens surtout du Centre et de l’Est de diversifier leurs approvisionnements énergétiques pour ne pas se retrouver à nouveau piégés, la découverte de nouveaux gisements (shale gas aux USA, subsalts au Brésil, sables bitumineux au Moyen-Orient), ont, en se combinant, fait dramatiquement baisser les prix du gaz et du pétrole, principale source de revenus de la Russie.

L’effondrement du secteur industriel lors de la chute du communisme n’a jamais été compensé et aujourd’hui, à de rares exceptions, la Russie ne dispose plus d’industries lourdes et légères compétitives. Ainsi le pays est dépendant de l’extérieur tant pour les exportations de matières premières qui forment la majeure partie de son stock de devises, que pour ses importations qui lui donnent accès aux biens de consommations qu’elle est incapable de produire.

La Russie se retrouve donc en pleine récession avec une croissance de l’ordre de -7,8% cette année et 2,5% prévus pour 2010. Même si tout ne semble pas sombre pour Moscou qui bénéficiera de la demande des autres BRICs en matières premières, énergétiques et métalliques, il est urgent pour la Russie de retrouver une force industrielle et de redynamiser son marché intérieur et ses alliances économiques.

Le gouvernement russe semble avoir compris cette nécessité comme en témoignent les partenariats et alliances passés avec des entreprises françaises lors de la visite de V. Poutine fin novembre. La Russie veut se rapprocher de l’Europe et du pays qui lui apparait le plus intéressant actuellement sur le Vieux Continent, à savoir la France. Loin de laisser choir son alliance traditionnelle avec l’Allemagne, la Russie acte du leadership français en ce qui concerne la Méditerranée. Les visées méditerranéennes de la Russie se confirment lors qu’on voit le rapprochement entrepris également avec l’Italie et les tentatives d’implantation d’entreprises russes au Maghreb, principalement dans les hydrocarbures. De même le pays essaie de s’accrocher à son partenaire historique en Asie, l’Inde, même si ce dernier ne cherche plus une place de soutien mais d’associé à part égale.

La Russie tente donc de se recentrer vers l’Europe, proposant en quelque sorte une « alliance des malades », tout en redynamisant son secteur industriel, trop longtemps abandonné. Alors que le gouvernement a dépensé la plupart de ses réserves financières en volant au secours de ses champions nationaux Gazprom ou Norilsk Nickel, la Russie doit maintenant relever le défi d’être autre chose qu’on gigantesque réservoir de matières premières.

L’Inde bénéficie de l’engagement de l’Etat

L’ouverture du marché indien aux investissements extérieurs aurait pu faire craindre le pire, toutefois le pays d’Asie du Sud est rapidement sorti de la crise, au point qu’on peut même se demander s’il y est entré. Signe de cette position favorable l’United Progressive Alliance, coalition au pouvoir, a remporté ces derniers mois plusieurs élections locales intermédiaires et ne devrait pas rencontrer de difficultés lors des élections générales de l’année prochaine.

En effet, l’Inde n’a pas, en apparence, souffert de la crise financière. Plusieurs raisons sont à mettre en avant : tout d’abord la faible exposition des entreprises indiennes au crédit, ce dernier étant assez peu développé dans le pays. Alors que jusqu’à présent la faiblesse du secteur bancaire indien apparaissait comme un désavantage majeur, c’est peut être cette faiblesse qui l’a sauvé des effets d’une crise liée avant tout à la finance. De même, l’extrême diversification des activités des grands groupes indiens leur a permis de compenser les pertes d’un secteur avec les revenus d’un autre.

L’intervention du gouvernement, venu soutenir fermement son secteur industriel, moteur de la croissance du pays, a permis à la croissance de se stabiliser à un niveau proche de 5,8 % cette année avec des prévisions flirtant avec les 6,5% pour 2010. Le retour de la demande extérieure dès la seconde moitié de l’année a permis à l’Inde de sortir de la crise avec le sentiment de ne presque pas y être entré. Alors que pour certains pays la crise a signifié une remise en cause de leur modèle économique ou même un coup d’arrêt dans leur expansion, pour l’Inde elle a tout au plus été un ralentissement et il est fort probable que les entreprises indiennes reprennent rapidement leur marche en avant à la conquête des marchés européens et américains.

La Chine souffre mais se reprend

L’Empire du Milieu, qui doit maintenir une croissance minimale aux alentours de 7,2% pour éviter une surchauffe sociale de son système économique, a souffert de la crise ; notamment à cause la baisse de la demande de produits manufacturés. En effet, une croissance de 6,1% enregistrée au premier trimestre 2009, chiffre propre à faire fantasmer les pays occidentaux, a fortement inquiété Pékin. La hausse du chômage, consécutive à la baisse de la demande extérieure aurait pu provoquer un embrasement social dans le pays. Toutefois la rapide intervention du gouvernement dans l’économie, ce dernier ayant pris totalement en charge, de manière quelque peu autoritaire, le pilotage de l’économie, a limité les dommages. L’injection massive de capitaux issus des fonds souverains a permis de soutenir la demande et, par là, d’éviter l’effondrement de plusieurs entreprises. De même la politique rigoriste menée par Pékin, obnubilé par le soutien aux entreprises, a porté ses fruits mais les conséquences pourraient se faire sentir sur le plan social.

La croissance chinoise a maintenant repris le train qu’on lui connait avec un chiffre impressionnant de 8,2% cette année et 8,9% prévus pour 2010. L’économie chinoise bénéficie encore et toujours de la sous-évaluation artificielle du yuan, ce qui a eu pour effet de particulièrement irriter B. Obama lors de sa visite à Pékin au mois de novembre, lui qui voudrait voir collaborer tous les pays afin que le monde entier, et surtout les USA, puisse sortir de la crise.

Ce rebond de l’économie chinoise, même si il faut rester prudent à ce sujet, permet à Pékin de se projeter toujours plus vers l’extérieur. Bénéficiant du marasme économique américain qui empêche les USA de continuer leur politique de soutien financier international, la Chine s’engouffre dans la brèche et tente de détruire l’influence des Etats-Unis dans nombre de pays. Au Pakistan tout d’abord, que les Chinois verraient bien comme allié dans la perspective de la construction d’un pipeline Iran-Chine, mais aussi dans toute l’Asie, certains pays comme le Japon rêvant de se raccrocher au train de la croissance chinoise.

Le repli économique des occidentaux sur leur économie domestique devrait aussi profiter à l’influence chinoise en Afrique, même si celle-ci y apparait, au vu de sa lourdeur, de plus en plus contestée. Toutefois, avant de penser à l’expansion économique ou même au développement accéléré d’industries de pointe, notamment dans l’aéronautique, le gouvernement de Pékin met sa priorité sur la sortie de crise, car malgré le retour de la croissance, l’effet boomerang social des mesures prises pour limiter les dégâts financiers pourrait bien se faire sentir.

Brésil : un fort potentiel

Alors que parmi les BRICs c’est le plus discret et celui qui peut sembler le plus faible, le Brésil s’est particulièrement bien sorti de la crise financière, non pas comme les autres pays émergents grâce à une intervention massive de son gouvernement mais plutôt grâce à une politique de longue haleine.

Il y a quinze ans, le Brésil était une économie dirigiste, contrôlée par l’Etat et gangrénée par l’inflation. Le travail entrepris par les divers gouvernements Cardoso et Lula a permis de modifier en profondeur les structures géoéconomiques du Brésil. La création d’une vraie classe moyenne, grâce aux plans sociaux mis en place depuis des années, a permis de créer un vrai débouché local pour les grandes entreprises issues des privatisations du milieu des années 90. Le Brésil affiche aujourd’hui sans complexe des champions nationaux susceptibles de rivaliser sur la scène mondiale comme Vale, Petrobras ou Embraer.

Alors que la plupart des Etats d’Amérique du Sud continuaient à parier sur leur secteur primaire et leurs exportations de matières premières, le Brésil a vu, dès 1995, la nécessité de se tourner vers la création d’une industrie assez solide pour pouvoir jouer un vrai rôle sur le continent. Bien lui en a pris car au moment de l’effondrement de l’économie argentine à la fin de la décennie 90, le Brésil a vraiment pu devenir le leader de l’Amérique du Sud. Grâce à une économie diversifiée, le Brésil est devenu au début des années 2000 le premier partenaire de ses voisins et un vrai leader économique de la région, sans afficher de prétentions à un leadership politique. Cette position économiquement forte en Amérique du Sud a permis au Brésil de se replier sur son marché domestique étendu (le Brésil même plus l’Argentine, le Chili et l’Uruguay) au moment de la tempête financière de 2008. De plus les efforts entrepris depuis le début des années 2000 pour « dédollariser » la dette du pays a également contribué a une bonne tenue du Brésil lors de la crise des subprimes.

La croissance estimée aux alentours de 0-1% cette année, devrait atteindre les 5,5% en 2010, si l’on en croit les économistes brésiliens. La force du Brésil se fonde sur un marché domestique étendu, englobant les pays voisins, sur une classe moyenne en continuelle expansion qui crée de fait une demande interne ainsi que sur une baisse continue des taux d’intérêt destinée à soutenir les investissements.

Toutefois si nous ne devions garder qu’un domaine où le Brésil nous apparait performant, ce serait l’énergie. Ainsi en ces temps de Conférence de Copenhague où la réduction des émissions de CO2 apparait (temporairement ?) comme une priorité mondiale, le Brésil arrive en champion mondial. En effet, la génération d’électricité au Brésil se fait grâce à plus de 80% d’énergies renouvelables, principalement par des centrales hydroélectriques. Inutile de dire que là où les autres BRICs vont avoir de gros efforts à faire s’ils veulent atteindre des objectifs de réduction d’émissions de CO2 importants, le Brésil lui arrive déjà comme leader mondial de la communauté des pays peu polluants. Nul doute que cet avantage, peu visible pour le moment, deviendra de plus en plus flagrant dans les années qui viennent.

Ainsi les BRICs sont apparus sous des jours différents à l’occasion de cette crise, certains rebondissant parfaitement, allant même jusqu’à se retrouver en position plus favorable qu’avant la crise, alors que d’autres sont entrés en récession au même titre que les économies les plus avancées. Il est toutefois particulièrement important de noter que pour la première fois dans l’histoire, ce sont les économies dites « émergentes » et non plus les économies les plus développées qui sont le moteur de l’économie mondiale, annonçant, peut-être, un changement de leadership plus global.

Auteur :  Nicolas Mazzucchi

Equipe  : Unasur.fr

Brésil : La puissance en douceur

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A Paris pour quelques jours, M. Luciano Coutinho, président de la BNDES, plus importante banque publique du Brésil, donnait le 3 novembre une conférence à la Sorbonne sur « Les perspectives de l’économie mondiale et brésilienne ». Cette conférence a été l’occasion de voir les positions d’un des leaders de la finance brésilienne, les volumes d’argent brassés par la BNDES représentant cinq fois ceux de la Banque Mondiale. Au-delà des aspects purement financiers de cette conférence, l’on pouvait voir se dessiner en filigranes l’esquisse d’une nouvelle puissance régionale aux volontés globales affirmées.

Au niveau purement financier, le Brésil, comme l’Inde et la Chine, a si bien su naviguer au travers de la crise qu’un retour de la croissance de son PIB, modeste certes, était observé dès la fin du second trimestre de cette année. Les causes en sont multiples : moindre dépendance au dollar, dynamisme général d’une économie émergente, banques publiques puissantes et volonté de sévèrement réguler l’économie nationale, peuvent être autant d’explications de cette bonne santé économique.

Néanmoins ce sont plutôt les conséquences qui nous intéressent ici. Comme le faisait remarquer L. Coutinho, ce sont maintenant les économies dites « émergentes » qui tirent l’économie mondiale vers le haut alors que les économies « développées » semblent devoir rester à la traîne.

Le Brésil peut s’appuyer sur des secteurs forts pour continuer son essor, principalement dans l’énergie. Que ce soit dans l’extraction avec Pétrobras ou dans la production pure avec Electrobras, le Brésil a, à l’instar de la Russie, de sérieux atouts. Toutefois la grande différence entre le Brésil et la Russie au niveau énergétique est la grande diversification qu’on observe au sein du portefeuille énergétique brésilien : charbon, hydroélectricité, biomasse, solaire, éolien, nucléaire… Le Brésil s’affirme aussi comme un des pays les plus en pointe en matière d’énergies renouvelables.

Le Brésil, selon le président de la BNDES, est néanmoins totalement conscient de cette dépendance au marché de l’énergie et des matières premières (agricoles notamment). Toujours selon L. Coutinho, une grande politique de développement de l’industrie de pointe est à l’œuvre au Brésil pour transformer le pays d’exportateur de matières premières en véritable puissance globale. Ainsi les contacts noués avec les grands groupes européens et américains dans les domaines de l’aéronautique ont pour but affiché de transformer le champion national Embraer en véritable compétiteur mondial. Dans cette optique, la modernisation du parc d’avions de chasse, compétition dans laquelle est engagée la France via Dassault, doit aussi s’accompagner de transferts de technologies aéronautiques.

Si l’on ajoute à ces avantages économiques une stabilité politique maintenue depuis près de 15 ans, on comprend pourquoi le Brésil apparaît de plus en plus comme une vraie puissance régionale attractive. Ceci est d’autant plus vrai que l’Unasur apparaît aujourd’hui paralysée et que l’hégémonie d’Hugo Chavez en Amérique du Sud est dramatiquement liée au cours du baril de pétrole.

Le Brésil, loin de ces éclats médiatiques et de cette pression diplomatique agressive sur ses voisins a su se rendre indispensable en Amérique du Sud, devenant un modèle et même plus pour nombre d’Etats. Grâce à une économie attractive et une diplomatie patiente, le Brésil est devenu le premier ou l’un des premiers partenaires commerciaux de ses voisins (Argentine, Uruguay, Chili…), créant une vraie domination économique régionale. Celle-ci est d’autant plus impressionnante que le pays est la seule économie de la région qui ne soit pas quasi-exclusivement tournée vers les matières premières.

Ainsi le Brésil sait devenir une puissance en douceur, par la séduction et l’attractivité plus que par la contrainte, une vraie application du soft power de Joseph Nye. Le Brésil se développe doucement mais surement, se transformant petit à petit en une économie avancée. Après tout n’est ce pas normal pour un Etat dont la devise est ordem e progresso, ordre et progrès ?

Auteur : Nicolas Mazzucchi

Equipe Unasur.fr

Espionnage entre le Pérou et le Chili : L’affaire Victor Ariza

Unasur Victor

Il y a quelques semaines le gouvernement péruvien a annoncé avoir capturé un officier péruvien espion qui aurait travaillé pendant plus de 6 ans pour le compte du Chili, son nom : Victor Ariza,  technicien du renseignement électronique de 45 ans pour l’armée de l’air.

Mis en détention par un juge de la Haute Cour de Lima, son réseau et son travail sont désormais sous haute surveillance et une enquête de niveau national a été mise en place.  Les enquêteurs ont très vite trouvé les traces de corruption. En effet alors que ce sergent percevait 300 Dollars par mois, il en recevait 3000 par mois d’une source inconnue. Son compte en banque était également créditeur de 178 000 dollars et des mails le compromettant ont été retrouvés.

Victor Ariza a aujourd’hui avoué sa trahison envers le Pérou. Il est responsable d’avoir  divulgué des secrets nationaux, il  a notamment livré les plans de modernisation de l’équipement des forces aériennes péruviennes ou encore les codes des téléphones sécurisés de l’ambassade du Pérou à Santiago. Enfin il a reconnu avoir fait du blanchiment d’argent pour le compte du Chili depuis septembre 2005.  (Voici une vidéo récapitulant les accusations et preuves contre Victor Ariza)

Cette affaire tombe au moment où la popularité du Président péruvien Alain Garcia est au plus bas et que les prochaines élections présidentielles arrivent à grands pas. Ce gros titre d’espionnage a provoqué un véritable élan de patriotisme des citoyens péruviens qui demandent à leur gouvernement d’être « intraitable avec les traîtres ».  Voici une vidéo d’un journal local péruvien  qui très curieusement n’interviewe que des gens farouchement touchés par cet élan patriote, vidéo qui a été diffusé dans tout le Pérou (est-ce une manipulation du gouvernement pour faire oublier les morts dûs aux conflits en Amazonie?)

Le Pérou  et le Chili sont aujourd’hui de bons partenaires commerciaux et frères dans le projet de l’unasur. Certain diront maladroitement que le Pérou n’a pas oublié la guerre perdue face au Chili de 1879-83. Mais la coïncidence de cette affaire avec de nombreux évènements semble très stratégique. En effet, le 13 décembre le Chili sera en pleine campagne pour le premier tour de la présidentielle, et cette affaire pourrait  faire vaciller le parti politique de la Présidente Bachelet. De plus le président de la Commission des Affaires étrangères chilienne a vu une « stratégie de communication » pour faire apparaître le Chili comme « belliciste ». Cela afin d’influer sur l’issue d’un contentieux concernant la frontière maritime Pérou-Chili, devant la Cour internationale de justice (CIJ).

Si le Président Garcia a officiellement reconnu que ni son homologue chilienne ni son gouvernement n’étaient coupable, sa stratégie de communication , elle aura les effets qu’il aura voulu du moins à court terme.

Serge Sedille

Equipe Unasur.fr

La colombie freine la réalisation des mécanismes de sécurité régionaux

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La Colombie s’enfonce un peu plus dans son isolement au sein de l’unasur, le 15 septembre 2009 à Quito, lors du sommet des ministres de la Défense et des ministres des affaires étrangères.

Ce sommet, qui avait été prévu suite au sommet extraordinaire à Bariloche deux semaines auparavant, avait pour but de « mettre en place des mécanismes de sécurité régionaux » et l’examen des contrats sur la coopération des bases militaires entre la Colombie et les États-Unis.

Mais la Colombie n’a pas joué le jeu et au lieu d’apporter le document, la délégation colombienne a préféré mettre en avant le fait qu’il ne soit pas demandé de compte ni au Brésil pour « son accord » avec la France pour l’achat de ses rafales, ni au Vénézuela pour ses importantes commandes d’arme à la Russie. Bloquant les négociations, le sommet de Quito s’est révélé être un échec.

La tentative de la Colombie de vouloir ré-orienter le débat sur l’acquisition des armes de ces pays (débat d’actualité dans l’unasur) lui a permis d’un coté de gagner du temps mais d’un autre côté de se mettre dans le collimateur de la majorité des pays de l’unasur. Il y a tout de même un « gap » entre l’achat d’armes et l’arrivée de troupes étrangères au sein d’un pays membre de l’unasur… Tous ces troubles commencent à faire beaucoup de bruit en Colombie et défavorisent l’image du président Uribe.

Chavez, révolté par l’attitude du gouvernement colombien préfère lui répondre immédiatement  :  » Nous ne cachons rien et nous sommes prêt à la transparence contrairement a vous, en  montrant le contenu de ses contrats d’armements entre la Russie et le Vénézuela« .

Deux jours après ces déclarations, le ministre des affaires étrangères uruguayen, Héctor Lacognata a déclaré que les pays membres de l’unasur seraient prêt à se revoir pour trouver un compromis et pouvoir dans une prochaine réunion (prévus à la première quinzaine du mois d’octobre) établir ensemble les mécanismes de sécurité régionaux pour afin désamorcer les débats houleux aussi entre la Colombie et le Vénézuela comme le Pérou avec la Bolivie.

Alors que la procédure et la réunion du conseil de défense de l’unasur concernant les mécanismes de sécurité sont décalées au mois de octobre, les pays membres de l’unasur se militarisent pour une menace devenant plus imminente.  Le ministre de la défense colombien, Gabriel Silva, avait déclaré mardi dernier que la Colombie pourrait quitter l’unasur si aucune mesure contre les acheteurs d’armes n’était prise. Cependant hier, le président Uribe est revenu sur cette déclaration pour dire que la Colombie n’envisageait pas un départ de l’unasur.

La colombie semble confuse, perdue et attend un geste significatif de l’unasur pour mettre fin au narcotraffic, aide qui selon eux aurait évité tous ces soucis.

Serge Sedille

Equipe Unasur.fr

La stratégie USA en amérique latine : Le livre blanc américain de defense

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Voici le document officiel du département de défense américain que le président vénézuelien  Hugo Chavez avait lu lors du sommet extraordinaire de l’unasur.  Dans une partie de ce document réside la stratégie USA pour l’Amérique latine et selon Chavez la mise en avant des réels

intentions des américains pour ce contient. En rouge, vous trouverez le passage concerné (page 21).

Bonne Lecture. L’équipe d’unasur.fr

Source : http://www.au.af.mil/au/

WHITE PAPER

AIR MOBILITY COMMAND

GLOBAL EN ROUTE STRATEGY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:


The current strategy for our en route system is based on the results of the 1995 Mobility

Requirements Study-Bottom Up Review (MRS-BURU) with refinements by mobility

capabilities studies in 2000 and 2005. The Global War On Terror has raised questions on the

validity of the current mobility en route system’s sizing and alignment. Furthermore, the

evolution of air mobility aircraft, operations, and various stressors on the en route system

indicate a need to reevaluate the capabilities required in the en route system.

The current National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy provide the

baseline for what our mobility strategy should be capable of achieving. The Nation’s emphasis

on global alliances, economies and responsibilities mandates global access and especially access

to strategically important areas of interest. Therefore, the goal of the proposed AMC en route

strategy is global access allowing the full spectrum of passenger and cargo movement.

The Areas of Interest, defined as continuing zones of hostility or instability or areas prone

to natural disasters and having the greatest need for airlift support, are identified as Southwest

Asia, Southeast Asia, Korea, Africa, Eurasia, and Indonesia. Accordingly, the en route lay-down

and infrastructure must be able to support a heavier flow to these regions. In addition, the

resulting strategy accounted for political sensitivities and was optimized for a presumed tight

fiscal environment. Finally, while the existing strategy maximizes the operational capabilities of

our mobility platforms, the new strategy must accommodate the limitations of services and

support in those locations we could be asked to transit.

In this proposed strategy, unlike in previous en route strategies, we’ve factored in the

family of tanker assets in our approach. While A/R assets have the ability to extend airlifter’s

range, this factor was not considered in the previous en route system strategy’s structure,

primarily because the system is designed to be responsive to worst-case scenarios, i.e., A/R

assets not being available to refuel airlift assets.

The previous strategy was based on the ―lens,‖ or ―sweet spot‖, for strategic airlift

operations, describing physical and technological limitations of the strategic airlift fleet

overlayed on the geographic landscape. The lens concept will be no less valid in 2025 than it

was when it was first conceived; however, in the proposed strategy we will refine its utility. The

new strategy does break from the historical view of a ―location-centric‖ en route concept which

promotes viewing the en route through its individual locations rather than as an interdependent

system. This perspective could result in decision-making that fails to consider the effect on the

entire strategy. For example, efforts to reroute airlift flow to certain locations in order to reduce

fuel consumption fail to account for the impact on the entire en route system. Instead, the

proposed strategy adopts a system of mutually supporting routes, allowing one to more readily

see the en route as a system of interdependent capabilities rather than a loose collection of

locations. The Atlantic and Pacific route systems are described below.

The Atlantic Route Strategy: We propose that there are three primary routes for

supplying the warfighter—northern, central and southern. These Atlantic routes have the


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advantage of providing overlap for each other. This feature of the Atlantic routes leads us to

postulate an alternate name for the Atlantic strategy—―Three-Use-Two.‖ In other words, we

have three routes across the Atlantic, and for any given action in one of the areas of interest, two

of the routes are available for delivering supplies to those areas. Should one route become

restricted or unavailable for whatever reason, political, meteorological, operating hours,

saturation, etc., supplies can be diverted through the additional supporting route.

The Pacific Route Strategy: We acknowledge in the Pacific that there are two primary

routes to supply the warfighter. We expand on the original ―2-Lose-1‖ strategy by proposing a

―Two Route Plus‖ option. The strategy still utilizes the Northern and Southern routes. However,

overlap of the routes, as seen in the Atlantic Strategy, is less feasible due to the geography of the

Pacific structure. Therefore, the ―Plus‖ alludes to our refinement of the strategy and enhances

the original ―2-Lose-1‖ strategy by mitigating choke points that might hinder flow.

Next, in an effort to facilitate the flow through the route structure mentioned above,

capabilities at each en route location must be identified. Maintenance and aerial port capabilities

are combined into general definitions to capture the full spectrum of required logistics

capabilities. These definitions are categorized into a four tier system. First, Tier I locations have

both major maintenance capability and full hub/spoke distribution service aerial port capability

(may include full break-bulk operations and robust passenger handling). Second, Tier II

locations are capable of minor maintenance, minor passenger handling, and trans-load, break-

bulk, flightline-to-truck dock ―customer receipt‖ aerial port services. Next, Tier III locations

have limited maintenance and limited aerial port services, to include passenger handling and

upload/download capability only. Finally, Expeditionary locations are stood up by deployed

personnel to provide limited maintenance, and aerial port capability, that can be sized as

necessary to full distribution service capability or limited ―customer receipt‖ capability. A table

of proposed en route locations can be found at page 31 of the white paper.

It is important to note that these definitions are general in nature and only meant to

provide a guideline for determining relative size. In fact, the maintenance and port capabilities at

any given location may not neatly fall into corresponding tiers. For instance, locations like

Aviano AB would be classified as a Tier III for maintenance, but a Tier II for port capabilities.

For a strategy to succeed, it must be implemented at the operational level, which implies

occasional subordination of operational efficiencies to the greater strategic need and desired

long-term effect. What we have learned over the years is that if locations aren’t used, they will

be lost, either to budget cutting measures or to host nation designs. To secure access to locations

required during contingencies or surges, we must be willing to operate in a distributed manner,

even if this means a loss of day-to-day efficiency. Finally, the strategy cannot be static. It must

adjust and adapt to changes in the National priorities, political landscape, and fiscal constraints.

To that end, we recommend that every two years, the command undertake a comprehensive

review of the en route strategy.


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WHITE PAPER

ON

GLOBAL EN ROUTE STRATEGY

1. BACKGROUND:

The existing en route structure is rooted on bases held at the end of World War II. In

both the Pacific and European theaters, infrastructure held at the end of the armistices form the

backbone of our en route infrastructure nearly 70 years later. The modern strategy for our en

route system is based on the results of the 1995 Mobility Requirements Study-Bottom Up

Review (MRS-BURU). This study adopted the National Military Strategy of fighting and

winning two simultaneous Major Theater Wars (MTWs) and proposed the mobility requirements

necessary to support that strategy. In 1996, AMC and USAFE, as part of an ad hoc en route

system working group, agreed that the requirements in MRS-BURU were valid and established a

requirement for six bases with sufficient capacity to allow for the loss of any one base.

Additionally, the agreement identified the need for two bases on the Iberian Peninsula, as well as

in Germany and the United Kingdom. However, in the same year, Spain denied access to

Torrejon AB and shortly thereafter, USAFE decided to end the Air Force presence at Zaragoza

AB. In 1998, USTRANSCOM and USEUCOM formalized the en route system working group

into what is known today as the European En Route Infrastructure Steering Committee

(EERISC) charged with advocacy responsibilities for mobility infrastructure in USEUCOM’s

Area of Responsibility (AOR). The EERISC then formalized the European en route basing

strategy, better known as the 6- lose-1 strategy.

In 1999, the Pacific En Route Infrastructure Steering Committee (PERISC) was stood up

as a parallel effort with the EERISC and established what’s become known as the 2-lose-1

strategy – basing along two primary routes with sufficient capacity to permit the temporary loss

of one route without excessively delaying the delivery of forces along the other.

Subsequent mobility requirements studies in 2000 (Mobility Requirements Study – 2005

(MRS-05)) and 2005 (Mobility Capabilities Study (MCS)) refined the requirements of the earlier

study but made no significant change to the en route system. MRS-05 became the justification

for a large number of infrastructure improvement projects in both the Pacific and European

theaters. As a note, the MCS stated that the overseas infrastructure, not the number of available

aircraft, remains the fundamental constraint when attempting to reduce delivery timelines

associated with large scale deployments.

In 2005, the National Military Strategy shifted from winning two simultaneous MTWs to

the 1-4-2-1+ strategy—to defend the homeland, operate in and from four forward regions, win

two overlapping campaigns, win decisively a single campaign and conduct a limited number of

lesser contingencies. Additionally, the stand up of USAFRICOM in conjunction with the on-

going Global War on Terror suggests that Africa could be viewed as a fifth ―forward region‖

which will require significant mobility capability to support the intent of the National Military

Strategy.

Today, the National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Defense Strategy (NDS)

emphasize the global nature of our commitments and obligations. To that end, the NDS states


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that ―The United States requires freedom of action in the global commons and strategic access to

important regions of the world to meet our national security needs.‖ (2008 National Defense

Strategy, p.22) Consequently, an air mobility strategy must be capable of providing the Nation’s

access to the strategically ―important regions of the world.‖

2. JUSTIFICATION FOR NEW STRATEGY:

The evolution of air mobility and the following stressors on the en route system point to

the need to reevaluate the capabilities required in the en route system:

The National§ Military Strategy has shifted from a two MTW strategy to the 1-4-2-1+

strategy

The events of§ 11 September 2001, resulting in the Global War on Terrorism

(GWOT), have dramatically altered the way we employ our military’s capability in

ways unforeseen in 1998

Significant§ manpower reductions driven by Program Budget Decision (PBD) 720 will

require USAF and AMC to identify efficiencies and process improvements in the en

route system to best accomplish the mission within the reduced level of manpower

The Air Force§ Smart Operations for the 21

st

Century (a process that re-engineers the

USAF, by eliminating steps that add no value to the end product or by combining

process steps to save time) has put intense scrutiny on the en route system as the Air

Force looks at avenues to save money and increase velocity

The military§ has become more expeditionary in nature stressing the mobility

capabilities on a daily basis

The other§ Services have modified their future systems acquisitions (e.g., the Army’s

Stryker program) which potentially increase their airlift requirements

The§ establishment of Africa Command (USAFRICOM), and its implications, were

not included in the MRS-05 analysis; it will add a new combatant commander

(CCDR), whose mobility requirements will compete with other regional CCDRs

The airlift§ fleet is significantly different in composition than that assumed and

proposed in MRS-05

The next§ generation air refueling aircraft is programmed to have a cargo capability

which may require an expansion of cargo handling capability at locations traditionally

dedicated to aircraft that don’t routinely carry cargo (e.g., KC-135s) as well as may

require larger parking areas than required for KC-135s. In addition, extensive fuel

hydrant modifications may need to be examined to handle the new aircraft, as well as

the requirements for airframe-specific maintenance personnel and supply stocks

The en route§ system, as championed in MRS-05, is airlift centric, focusing on a

quantifiable cargo handling capability (million-ton-miles), a metric that is not always

applicable

o Cargo and passenger generation, through-put and reception requires

significantly greater infrastructure than gas-and-go operations as does

workflow generated by strategic distribution—i.e., truck-to-truck flow,

seaport-to-airport flow, and seaport-to-surface movement flow


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o Did not explicitly deconflict the use of airlift ramps between AMC mobility

assets and other MAJCOM or CCDR/Service apportioned assets (e.g.,

USAFE/ PACAF C-17s, tankers, fighters, USN aircraft, and/or USA aircraft)

The increased§ range and payload capability from the C-5M, and the increased range

capability of the extended range tank-equipped C-17s may extend the traditional

concept of the en route system to include capabilities closer to the warfighter

  • · Creation, approval, and implementation by USTRANSCOM, USEUCOM, and

USCENTCOM of the European Intermodal Distribution (EID) and Middle East

Intermodal Distribution (MEID) CONOPs in the 2006-2007 timeframe

  • · Changing nature of the threat (including MANPADs) that requires Defensive Systems

use, tactical approaches and arrivals, and transload operations

  • · Increase need for hot cargo pads to support deployment of Stryker units, FCS, and

MEFF-V with munitions as an integral part of the load

  • · Advent of Just-In-Time Logistics concepts

The evolving§ nature of the battlespace (from Cold War’s linear, contiguous

configuration to a non-linear, non-contiguous paradigm) that will likely be much

more demanding of air mobility for deployment, supply, and redeployment

These factors point to the need to reevaluate the required capabilities in the mobility en route

system.

The GWOT has raised questions on the validity of the current mobility en route system’s

sizing and alignment. Realignment of US forces out of Korea and Japan will force changes in

OPLANS/CONPLANS, significantly expanding the role of Guam in the USPACOM AOR.

Likewise, within the USEUCOM AOR, USAFE has explored budgetary cost reductions through

base realignment, evaluated the range of the C-17/distances expected for a crew to transit, and

directed manpower reductions as a result of PBD 720. Concurrently, an increased drive to

improve velocity and precision, with decreased delivery times, has led to evaluating the current

and future force structure within the AMC En Route System.

3. STRATEGY REQUIREMENTS

A comprehensive study is needed to validate, modify, or recreate the mobility en route

structure. A fresh look at the en route system would first require a definition of what the system

encompasses (e.g. a shift from requirements driven modeling to capabilities based). The study

should use USTRANSCOM’s Distribution Process Owner (DPO) concept of factory to foxhole

vice Aerial Port of Embarkation (APOE) to Aerial Port of Debarkation (APOD) as a guiding

principle for looking at air mobility operations, focusing on the en route distribution portion.

The intent of this statement is not to focus on tactical-level destinations or homestation/CONUS

originating locations, but to ensure the inclusion of aerial ports that perform a substantial amount

of onward air movement, even if they also often serve as originating/ terminating locations.

Any study of the en route system capabilities should define the level of risk imposed by

fiscal realities, physical infrastructure, manpower, and supporting host unit services. It should

attempt to minimize the impact of those risks by adjusting the strategy to compensate.

Additionally, it should identify mechanisms and procedures to adjust the en route capability to

meet supported OPLAN requirements. It should also consider organizational structure impacts

on throughput capability.


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Furthermore, the reevaluation of the en route system should be strategic in nature. The

benchmark for whether a location would qualify as a strategic en route location should be based

on whether OSD (Executive Agent of USAF) would be willing to commit military construction

(MILCON) funds to, or seek Host Nation funding for, mobility infrastructure (MILCON

programming, funding and execution responsibility often falls on other services per DODI

4000.19). The commitment of these funds would signal a long term commitment to the mobility

mission at that location.

The final component of this study would initiate an established review of Cooperative

Security Locations (CSLs) identified within the CCDR Master Basing Plan. Using the en route

bases as the hubs, these CSLs would be the spokes that can be reached by each hub. More

importantly, the CSLs help to bridge the coverage gaps that exist. The CSL’s capabilities will

impact the size and location of more robust and permanent en route locations.

Millions of dollars have been invested in the current en route structure to support the

strategy laid out in MRS-05. The structure will likely remain intact; however, how the structure

will be used is a key question this study will address. At a minimum, the study will evaluate the

current en route system using the latest baseline information so it is responsive to changes in the

strategic environment.

The resulting strategy should be adopted as the minimum acceptable capability, identify

maximum allowable capability based on permanent infrastructure/equipment constraints, and

provide the basis for fiscal support from owning and using MAJCOMs and applicable services

(e.g., USN).

4. STRATEGY LANDSCAPE:

In 2007, in part responding to AMC’s proposal for a new study of the en route system,

USTRANSCOM began the Global Access and Infrastructure Assessment (GAIA). GAIA’s

stated purpose was three-fold:

• Examine global access and infrastructure supporting joint deployment and distribution

enterprise (JDDE)

– Access … can we reach and enter required areas

– Infrastructure … do facilities permit required operations

• Shape and inform the OSD-directed Mobility Capabilities & Requirements Study

(MCRS)

• Develop cohesive strategy to ensure global access and infrastructure, as necessary

The results of the study would be the foundation of a strategy allowing us to provide

transportation support, whether by air, land, or sea, anywhere on the globe.

Unguided modeling of the world would have been an enormous undertaking and may

have resulted in strategic direction that might not have provided adequate support to AMC global

airlift operations. Consequently, AMC, with the support of USTRANSCOM, undertook building

a high-level strategy informed by experience and intended to narrow the focus of the GAIA

research. The ultimate goal of the strategy is global access. However, focusing solely on global

access could result in misallocating resources, so the strategy should also focus on providing

coverage of key areas. These areas (Southwest Asia, Southeast Asia, Korea, Africa, Eurasia and

Indonesia) are defined as continuing zones of hostility or instability or areas prone to natural


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disasters and have the greatest need for airlift support. Accordingly, the en route lay-down and

infrastructure needed to be able to support a heavier flow to these regions.

The goals of the AMC strategy are to fill the global coverage seams with the full

spectrum of passenger and cargo movement. The full-spectrum includes the least (minimum

required to operate an AMC aircraft) to most capability (comparable to that available at

Ramstein). This movement would be limited by political sensitivities (e.g., overflight

restrictions, etc.) and optimized for a presumed tight fiscal environment. This fiscal environment

would dictate that we optimize the use of existing infrastructure to maximize the return on prior

en route infrastructure investments while identifying the next level of investment required to

meet the strategy’s goal. The strategy should also maximize the operational capabilities of our

mobility platforms, but we must accommodate the limitations of services and support in those

locations we could be asked to transit.

A brief note on the scope of this strategy: Strategic or tactical airlift missions are

support- intensive enterprises. Large quantities of fuel are required, ramp space necessary to

handle large aircraft is often limited, and cargo handling equipment, distribution capability, in-

transit storage and the ability to handle passengers is required. On the other hand, some AMC

assets, (e.g., air refueling and DV/VIPSAM aircraft) are self-deploying requiring very little on-

site support. As long as parking space and fuel is available, they continue to operate.

Consequently, the focus of the strategy is on the basing and infrastructure requirements to

support the most demanding of the AMC assets—airlift. Finally, in order to be able to

reasonably establish military construction projects, if needed, the strategy will focus on the years

from 2015 to 2025.

5. STRATEGY ASSUMPTIONS:

Since the proposed strategy is a prelude to the analyses of the GAIA and MCRS-16, a

rather extensive set of assumptions had to be made. Some of the premises will continue to be

assumptions in the aforementioned studies, while others may be eliminated. However, the


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proposed strategy could not have progressed to this point without the following assumptions in

place:

  • · The global political landscape in 2025 is similar to the landscape today
  • · There will be no significant change in overflight restrictions
  • · In 2025, the strategic airlift fleet will consist primarily of C-17s
  • · A C-17’s unrefueled out-and-back radius is 2,000NM
  • · A C-17’s point-to-point distance is 3,500NM
  • · Since the airlift capability of the new air refueling design has not been fully vetted, its

capability was not considered.

  • · Every attempt will be made to maximize existing infrastructure within the strategy. In

other words, as long as existing infrastructure can fit into the new strategy, the strategy

should take best advantage of it

  • · In accordance with the President’s statement and the statements of member nations, no

permanent basing was planned on the African continent, except at Camp Lemonier,

Djibouti. However, an Expeditionary Air Mobility Squadron (EAMS), while not

specifically recommended anywhere in Africa by the strategy, should not be ruled out

except by robust analysis of requirements and routes

  • · CONUS locations and end of the strategic airlift routes were not considered part of en

route system. Some locations, Al Udeid for example, serve dual roles as APOEs and

APODs. In these cases, we will treat them as en routes

  • · Every attempt would be made to maximize throughput while minimizing risks to mission

success

  • · The strategy should maximize global coverage while concentrating on areas of concern
  • · The strategy would feed USTRANSCOM’s GAIA which would provide the analytic

underpinning and Joint Staff’s MCRS-16

Finally, a quick look at a globe will reveal a basic geographic fact-of-life—90 percent of

the world’s landmass is north of the equator. Not surprisingly, 90 percent of the world’s

population lives north of the equator. These two facts drive the east-west orientation of this

strategy. While not ignoring the existence of the 10 percent in the southern hemisphere, the

proposed strategy is heavily weighted toward the northern hemisphere.

6. DEFINITIONS:

The en routes are logistics-oriented organizations of aircraft maintenance and

transportation (freight, passenger, and aircraft comfort servicing) activities. To define the size of

an en route location, the size of the two logistics areas need to be scoped.

To that end, all references to maintenance capability conform to the definitions in the

AMC Supplement to AFI 21-101. En route maintenance capability falls into three categories:

major, minor and limited. AFI 21-101 AMCSUP 1 defines them as:

―Limited maintenance capability consists of general servicing tasks only. Minor

maintenance capability consists of general servicing tasks, and 2-level maintenance

component troubleshooting and remove/replace actions commensurate with MDS

Minimum Equipment List (MELs). Major maintenance capability consists of all items


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listed above, in addition to more in-depth troubleshooting for problem systems, and some

backshop level tasks. Level of backshop capability will be determined through host

tenant agreements/command to command agreements.‖ (A14.4.2.)

Aerial port capability is also broken into three categories, though they are not defined

with the same rigor as the maintenance capability. Port capabilities are described as large,

medium and small. They largely describe the manpower and facilities necessary based on

passenger, cargo and aircraft fleet servicing requirements.

Therefore, combining the maintenance and aerial port capabilities into a single definition

that captures the full spectrum of logistics capabilities results in the following definitions:

  • · Tier 1 = En route location with major maintenance and full service capabilities
  • · Tier 2 = En route location with minor maintenance and in-transit port capabilities
  • · Tier 3 = En route location with limited maintenance and limited port capabilities
  • · Expeditionary = En route location where all maintenance and port capability is provided

as the mission dictates and by deployed personnel

.


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As can be seen, classifying locations by Tiers is not an entirely clean process across all

functional areas. The most obvious problem lies in trying to fit aerial port capabilities into the

Tier definitions. Classifying a location for port capabilities results in a significantly different

picture of the en route than classifying for operations and maintenance. For example, compare

the table on page 33 with the table at Appendix 3. However, while we recognize the differences

between port capability and operations and maintenance capabilities, the differences are not

significant enough to change the outcome of this paper.

7. GLOBAL STRATEGY:

The proposed global strategy that resulted from MRS-BURU provided an excellent

baseline for continued reviews of the en route strategy. In the European theater, it identified the

six locations for the first leg from the CONUS that proved crucial to continuing support to the

warfighter at more distant locations. In the Pacific theater, the 2-lose-1 strategy recognized the

lack of available real estate on which to establish a network of mobility support stops by

focusing on locations lying along routes.

The primary drawback to this ―location-centric‖ en route concept is that it promotes

viewing the en route through its individual elements rather than as an interdependent system.

This, in turn, can result in decision-making that fails to consider the effect on the entire strategy.

This becomes particularly evident during periods of constrained resources and efforts to extract

savings. For example, recent efforts to place Moron in a turnkey status focus solely on the

historical use of the airfield. Additionally, efforts to reroute airlift flow to reduce fuel

consumption fail to account for the impact on the entire en route system.

Consequently, this effort attempted to redefine the en route as a system of interdependent

capabilities that, taken as a whole, help meet the nation’s inherent interest in global influence and

projection.

It was determined that the strategy established in the Pacific theater actually did an

excellent job of framing the en route capabilities as a system. In the Pacific, the en route strategy

is based on the availability of two routes to the area of interest. The two routes are

interdependent and mutually supporting and it allows one to more readily see the en route as a

system of capabilities rather than a loose collection of locations.

To that end, this global strategy adopts the Pacific theater model of a route-based strategy

in the European theater and continues the model in the Pacific. The strategy abandons the

moniker of ―6-Lose-1‖ that was focused on individual locations in favor of a three route strategy.

The three routes are designed to service different areas of interest. Yet, they are mutually

supporting so that the airlift requirements in a given area of interest can be supported from any

two routes. This effort is intended to move the European en route from its location-centric focus

toward a holistic and systematic view.

8. AIR REFUELING (A/R) AND THE EN ROUTE:


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The Air Force’s air refueling capability provides the nation an amazing capability to

extend its reach to all segments of the globe. As stated in the 2008 Air Mobility Master Plan

(AAMP):

Air refueling is an important part of air mobility and serves to enable and

multiply the effects of airpower at all levels of warfare. The Mobility Air Forces’ air

refueling (AR) capability makes possible the intertheater air bridge operations

needed to support large deployments, humanitarian assistance, global strike, or the

long-range airdrops of paratroopers and their equipment without reliance upon

intermediate or in-theater staging bases [Emphasis added]. Air refueling provides

the nuclear-equipped bomber force with the ability to deliver its payload to any

location in the world and recover to a suitable reconstitution base. Combat

operations require air refueling to extend the persistence and endurance as well as

range of all aircraft.

This range extension capability has tremendous potential to enhance the Mobility Air

Force’s velocity supporting the warfighter. The need for this capability was clearly seen during

the historic Nickel Grass operation where C-141s and C-5s delivered weapons and supplies to

Israel enabling them to prosecute and win a war before the first supply ship arrived. As a result

of the experiences in Nickel Grass, the Air Force sought to expand its air refueling capability.

The capability was crucial to the success of Desert Shield. It was the availability of air refueling

that allowed many airlifters to operate at their maximum wartime gross weight that would

normally limit their range.

Given the range extension advantage offered by A/R for a C-17, the following map

shows how much of the globe can be reached from the CONUS in a basic crew duty day. Only

the Indian Ocean region from southern/eastern Africa to Australia is outside the aircraft’s reach.

This is a powerful warfighting capability that must remain in the MAF’s arsenal for use.

Accommodating the range extension capabilities afforded by A/R entails accepting a

level of risk in airlift operations. These risks include the airlift asset not being air refueled due to

weather (turbulence, clouds or icing), airspace limitations, mechanical malfunction, or tanker

availability forcing the airlifter to land short of its intended destination. Furthermore, providing

air refueling of airlift assets is intrinsically inefficient and should only be used to meet


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operationally necessary timelines or conditions. It’s far more costly in terms of fuel expenditure

to launch a tanker than it is to schedule an en route stop along the airlifter’s route. While we can

certainly consider/plan for the use of A/R in extending the range of airlifters, we certainly cannot

discount the possibility that A/R will not be available. If the en route system is not structured to

accommodate this possibility, we risk that our airlift assets may land at a location where there

may be no support. This was not a risk the original strategists were willing to assume.

However, when one looks at the most notable uses of A/R through history, the focus

tends to fall on range extension for the bomber fleet in operations like Operation EL DORADO

CANYON (F-111s attack Libyan targets) and the first combat sorties of DESERT STORM when

Barksdale AFB B-52s departed Louisiana on 35-hour non-stop, round-trip missions to launch

cruise missiles. The other high-profile mission for A/R assets is extending loitering time for

fighters engaged in tactical operations. Additionally, during the Kosovo war, Air Force tankers

provided ninety percent of all A/Rs for the NATO forces. These operations highlight the

competition for limited A/R resources.

9. AIR REFUELING (A/R) EMPLOYMENT:

Employment of the A/R assets is directed by an entirely different set of requirements than

the employment of airlift assets. Rather than being dictated by the point-to-point delivery of

cargo and passengers, tankers receive their requirements from the needs of those they intend to

serve—receivers. In their primary role, tankers need to be responsive to when and where

receivers require refueling. This could mean their primary mission is loitering over the ocean to

permit fighters to fly non-stop from their CONUS base to an overseas location. Or they could

orbit in the AOR affording attack aircraft added patrol time. Or they could be at locations

strategically placed to allow heavily-laden airlifters the opportunity to deliver their cargo non-

stop from the factory to the foxhole.

Consequently, designing an en route system for tankers operating in their air refueling

role would entail knowing where the tankers would be expected to provide air refueling.

Admittedly, this is a very operations-dependent determination and difficult for a strategy to

anticipate. However, we can suggest likely locations to ensure they are capable for tanker

operations based on historic use and known air refueling tracks.

Because the requirement for tankers operating as air refuelers is based on where the

receivers are when they need refueling and not on the great circle range of a point-to-point

mission, the decision matrix for where to locate them is fundamentally different. Helping us

with the decision matrix is the fact that in many places of the world, air refueling is tightly

controlled and the airspace strictly bounded. When an aircraft is planned to receive air refueling,

it’s typically within the confines of an established reserved airspace. Consequently, we should

look for tanker en route locations in the proximity of these reserved air refueling areas.

In the Atlantic region, there are numerous areas reserved for air refueling off the west

coast of Great Britain, France, and Spain. There are also A/R routes in Germany (though these

are primarily for training and supported with USAFE assets), through the Mediterranean and

near the Azores Islands. Fortunately, there are existing Tier III en route locations very near each

of these regions. These Tier III locations by definition expect little airlift throughput. Therefore,

provided adequate parking space is available, they would be ideal locations for self-deploying

tankers to recover to or launch from in support of A/R missions. The locations we would suggest

then as A/R tanker mission en route locations are Mildenhall, Fairford, Moron, Sigonella or


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Souda Bay, and Lajes (Sigonella will be discussed further below as a potential tanker task force

location). Each of these locations has more than adequate parking for tankers operating as A/R

platforms.

A limitation at Sigonella is runway length. Presently, Sigonella has an 8,000 foot

runway. As long as we maintain KC-135s in the inventory through the strategy period, which is

expected, the temperature and runway length will be a limiting factor (primarily for emergency

returns). Therefore, we recommend and support a runway extension of 2,000 feet at Sigonella to

the Navy and Italian government before using Sigonella as a primary TTF location.

In the Pacific region, tankers suffer the same constraints that airlift aircraft have—lack of

available real estate, especially along the Southern route. Should tankers perform A/R for

aircraft transiting the Southern route, they have no choice but to use the same en route locations

as identified for airlift aircraft. Hickam, Andersen and Kadena are all key locations for tankers.

With the buildup of forces at Andersen during the strategy period maximum use of the

anticipated tanker task force should be planned. However, should this task force be unavailable,

planner should consider avoiding Andersen with transiting tankers due to the potential for

congestion.

On the other hand, the Northern route offers Tier III location well suited to tanker en

route operations. In Alaska, the use of either Elmendorf or Eielson would allow tankers to refuel

aircraft over the Aleutians and using the Tier III location at Misawa would allow access to A/R

routes near the Japanese islands.

Finally, U-Taphao and Diego Garcia are ideal locations for aircraft heading west or for

operations in their areas.

Historically, the use of tankers in their cargo mode has been limited. Approximately only

10 percent of air refueling missions have operated in a cargo-carrying mode. However, with the

shift towards capabilities-based planning, the airlift role of air refueling assets is expected to be

emphasized in the future.

The cargo capability of KC-135s is minimal—6 pallets or 18 short tons. The capability

of KC-10s is more extensive—23 pallets or 60 short tons. Certainly the cargo capacity of the

limited number of KC-10s is a considerable capability that the mobility system relies on. In

addition, the future cargo capacity of the KC-X promises to be extensive. Their ability to

augment the organic airlift fleet should be planned for and incorporated into any airlift strategy.

When integrating tankers into the airlift strategy, it must be recognized that neither of the

present-day aircraft have roll-on/roll-off capability and require specialized material handling

equipment to reach the side door. Furthermore, when these aircraft do operate in a cargo mode,

the air refueling capability is reduced due to weight restrictions.

Nevertheless, the demand for their air refueling capability, coupled with the

aforementioned weight limitations while in the airlift role, means that the opportunities for

tankers to haul cargo are minimal. Even robust forecasts plan on approximately 20 percent of

total air refueling missions to operate in a cargo role. Given these indicators, we recommend that

tankers, when operating in the airlift role, operate through the en route locations most appropriate

for the cargo movement. Consequently, tankers operating in a TWCF airlift role, controlled by

618 TACC, use the en route system just as the C-17s or C-5s would. Neither manning nor

infrastructure would need to be increased to accommodate the expected minor increase in flow

this capability represents.

There are locations where basing a unit of tankers would not only serve heavily used air

refueling routes, but also provide freight and passenger capabilities should that role be assigned


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to the tankers. These locations would represent the most efficient basing of tanker assets. In the

past, a deployment of a quantity of tankers to support an air refueling operation was known as a

tanker task force. We recommend redefining this term to include the basing of tanker assets at a

deployed location for the purposes of either or both air refueling and airlift operations.

Consequently, a TTF could be employed to provide air refueling to a given operation or to fulfill

a known airlift need or in support of both operations.

The parameters used to determine the optimal location for a tanker task force are

relatively straightforward—1. Proximity to established air refueling tracks, and 2. Proximity to

major airlift routes. Given these parameters, there are a large number of air refueling areas

around the United Kingdom, Germany, and extending from east of Crete to Sardinia in the

Mediterranean. Mildenhall, which is already configured to bed-down a tanker deployment,

would have ready access to the UK and German air refueling areas for use by either eastbound or

westbound mobility aircraft using the North Atlantic route. In the Mediterranean, Souda Bay,

Crete, Sigonella, Sicily, Incirlik, or Moron, Spain, from which the Mediterranean A/R routes

could be accessed, could provide support to the Central Atlantic route.

One location, in particular—Sigonella—provides us unique capability options and

efficiencies the other locations do not. Because the Defense Logistics Agency has established a

major warehouse capability, supplies destined for Africa may be congregated at Sigonella. We

can, then, easily imagine a scenario where on a day-to-day basis the TTF could refuel aircraft

entering or exiting the SW Asia AOR. Should a situation arise that small quantities of cargo

need to be airlifted to an African operation, the tankers in the TTF could then be pressed into

their dual role and carry the cargo onto the African continent (provided high-lift capable MMHE

is available at the APOD). Or, if the quantity of cargo to be moved is large, provide infil/exfil air

refueling for the African bound airlifters. Furthermore, the ability to resupply the fuel stocks via

sea LOCs from the Mediterranean could ensure more reliable supply of fuel in greater quantities.

Given this type of capability, we find the location of a TTF at Sigonella most reasonable.

As a side note, in the Mediterranean we have the option of seeking synergy with NATO,

who is also reviewing locations for their Air Refueling Capability Package. Consequently, we

suggest that any TTF location in the Mediterranean be predicated on the results of the NATO site

selection and that AMC be a strong proponent of a NATO Air Refueling Capability Package

located at Sigonella.

A TTF along the southern airlift route would help ensure that airlifters could deliver their

cargo on the continent without requiring fuel at the APOD. As will be discussed in the en route

strategy, the quality or availability of fuel on the continent is often questionable. Therefore, a

TTF located to provide air refueling for airlifters during either infil or exfil could maximize the

range of cargo delivery. To that end, we recommend that when a large airlift operation is

expected along the southern Atlantic route, an expeditionary TTF be deployed to Ascension

Island.

In the Pacific, we do not recommend a mobility TTF located at Andersen AFB once the

GIMDP relocations are complete. The congestion anticipated at the base, especially in the event

of a contingency, will render parking a TTF difficult. Instead, we suggest that any TTF for the

Southern route be sited at Hickam and/or Kadena with Hickam as the preferred location. A

Northern TTF could be sited at Eielson.

10. THE UNIQUE PROBLEMS OF AFRICAN COVERAGE:


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The African strategy is a work in progress. To date, USAFRICOM has not developed a

long-term strategy from which airlift requirements can be derived. This is despite the fact that

senior USAFRICOM officials are convinced that support for their efforts will require extensive

strategic airlift. General Ward, USAFRICOM Commander, has stated ―Predictable, reliable

inter- and intra-continental lift…is so important for us today, as we then are postured and in a

stance that will enable us to lead activity that helps to assure stability, as opposed to just reacting

to a crisis, » Clearly, there is the expectation that airlift support will be crucial.

However, infrastructure on the African continent for supporting strategic airlift

movements is noticeable in its absence. Coastal locations, such as Dakar, Senegal, often have

infrastructure capable of handling strategic airlift, but the infrastructure in the continent’s interior

is either absent or seriously degraded. Additionally, the coastal infrastructure is suffering. A

recent USTRANSCOM survey of select African airfields revealed that infrastructure is degraded,

poorly maintained or inadequate for sustained strategic airlift movement. Probably the most

disturbing limitation is in the quantity and quality of aviation fuel. This limitation was

highlighted during a spring 2008 POTUS trip on the continent. Considerable air refueling assets

had to be used to offset the lack of fuel in sufficient quantities or of acceptable quality.

Further complicating the problem are statements from senior government leaders

pledging that there will be no permanent basing on the African continent. While this doesn’t

seem to preclude an expeditionary presence, the net effect seems to be that anything more than

transient and infrequent strategic airlift will be difficult or impossible to sustain from an African

location. Fortunately, there is already an established base on the continent at Camp Lemonier in

Djibouti and it appears to be enduring.

A promising method of delivering cargo by airlift is relying on the range of unrefueled

strategic airlifters. As was previously mentioned, a C-17 can travel 2,000 NM, perform an

engine running offload at the destination and return to the original departure location without

refueling. Consequently, if a C-17 departs from a location on the perimeter of Africa, it can

cover a rather large area of the continent. In fact, if one draws a 2,000 NM arc from some key

locations, nearly the entire continent, with the exception of the southern tip, falls into one of the

arcs.


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(This, of course, is a rather simplistic view of achieving coverage of the continent. It

does not account for known restrictions to aerial delivery, such as overflight restrictions and

minimal air route structures.)

Consequently, the southern route of the Atlantic en route strategy seeks to take advantage

of locations on the perimeter of Africa by using the unrefueled range of a C-17. The southern

route shares many of the locations with the central route, in particular, those on the

Mediterranean.

11. THE ATLANTIC (EUROPEAN/AFRICAN) STRATEGY:

The proposed European strategy should be more appropriately called the Atlantic

strategy. The names of the routes that define the strategy are based on their relative position over

the Atlantic Ocean. Renaming also limits the notion that a regional command owns a portion of

the en route system.

The ancestor strategy in this region was known as ―6-Lose-1‖ and ―Global En Route

Strategy, USEUCOM.‖ The strategy was based on a ―lens,‖ or a ―sweet spot‖, for strategic

airlift operations (see map on page 20). Given a 3,500 NM point-to-point range of a C-17, the

right-hand side of the lens defined the distance strategic airlift could fly from a mid-Atlantic

CONUS location while the left-hand side of the lens defined the distance from a south-west

Asian location. The area bounded by the two range rings is the lens—locations that could be

reached from either the CONUS or SW Asia. To maximize the functionality of this concept, the

6-Lose-1 strategy focused on making the six primary locations in the lens region as strategic

airlift-capable as possible.

The lens actually describes physical and technological limitations of the strategic airlift

fleet laid on the geographic landscape. Those limitations have not changed, and given the pace

of fielding technological advances, they will not have changed by 2025. Consequently, the

concept of the lens will be no less valid in 2025 than it was when it was first conceived.

Therefore, we are not abandoning the lens concept. Instead, we will refine its utility.

The following graphic depicts the airlift workload in 2007. The majority of the workload

that crossed the Atlantic on its way to the warfighter passed through Ramstein AB. Ramstein

represents the most capable en route airlift throughput location in the eastern hemisphere. Not

only does it have the most advanced and thorough capability, but it’s also ideally situated along

the great circle route to the USCENTCOM AOR and is centrally located within the lens. Paired

with the relief location of Spangdahlem AB, it makes an ideal location on which to base a

northern routing across the Atlantic.


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If one looks at pure great circle routing from the east coast to Baghdad, Djibouti, or

Ghana, one will begin to see the genesis for the routing strategy we propose to adopt. We

propose that there are three primary distribution routes for supplying the warfighter—northern,

central and southern routes. These Atlantic routes have the advantage of providing overlap for

each other. In other words, should the northern Atlantic route not be available for weather,

political or saturation reasons, supplies en route to southern Eurasia or southwest Asia can be

routed through the central route. The central route also provides access, with the southern route,

to the African continent. This feature of the Atlantic routes leads us to postulate an alternate

name for the Atlantic strategy—―Three-Use-Two.‖ In other words, we have three routes across

the Atlantic and for any given action in one of the areas of interest, two of the routes are

available for delivering supplies to those areas.


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The most direct routing (and the most fuel efficient routing) to southwest Asia or

Southern Eurasia, carries us across northern and eastern Europe. Mildenhall, Spangdahlem,

Ramstein, Constanta, and Incirlik all lie within close proximity of this northerly route. These

bases possess the most robust existing infrastructure in the entire theater. However, the northern

route is hindered by poor weather and limited operating hours at nearly all locations, which make

planning and scheduling across international boundaries problematic. This latter issue includes

rerouting to accommodate political sensitivities.

Along the northern route, our most capable location with the greatest throughput

capability is Ramstein AB. Its massive mobility ramp, state-of-the-art freight facility, and C-5

capable hangar make it Europe’s only Tier 1 location at present. Its paired location,

Spangdahlem AB, has lesser throughput capability, but is robust in its own right. We suggest

that to provide adequate throughput along the northern route, Spangdahlem should remain a Tier

II location and should be considered an essential pairing with Ramstein.

RAF Mildenhall remains a strategically crucial en route location. Located on perhaps the

most politically friendly country in Europe, it will be valuable for basing mobility operations

should operations become politically more problematic across the European continent (an

example of which was Operation EL DORADO CANYON, the bombing raid into Libya). The

base has a robust passenger and freight handling capability we should not abandon. It is also a

valuable resource should mechanical problems force an aircraft to stop short either east- or west-

bound. However, as velocity has driven consolidation of organic airlift assets for efficiency,

Mildenhall has increasingly been overflown by our organic fleet in favor of the locations in

Germany. Recognizing this fact, we recommend that Mildenhall downsize to a Tier III location.

In the British Isles, a more central location on the great circle route between the east coast

of the US and the Persian Gulf is Shannon, Ireland. Presently, AMC contract commercial

carriers use Shannon as a fuel stop as they return to the CONUS. Due to its central location, it

would be an ideal gas-and-go location. However, any AMC presence there would be duplicative

of the presence at Mildenhall and fails to recognize the existing efforts to consolidate throughput

for efficiencies. Consequently, we recommend that the Tier III presence at Mildenhall be

capable of moving TDY personnel augmented from CONUS locations to man the expeditionary

gas-and-go capability at Shannon.

Our experiences during Desert Shield/Storm and OEF/OIF have highlighted the

importance of en route locations subsequent to the first leg en routes. Both Incirlik AB and Al

Udeid AB are crucial as transload locations—a transition from intratheater to intertheater. As

such, their throughput capability is crucial to ongoing operations. Additionally, both have

proven their value during OEF/OIF. With continued areas of interest in this region, transload

capability will continue to be crucial. Consequently, we recommend that both Incirlik and Al

Udeid be upgraded to Tier II locations.

Air mobility operations at Al Mubarak AB, Kuwait, have endured since the end of

Operation DESERT SHIELD. This large capacity aerial port provides a vital distribution link in

support of CENTCOM operations and is tied directly into the Defense Distribution Depot

Kuwait-South West Asia (DDKS) and the Theater Consolidation and Shipping Point (TCSP).

Based on the historical workload and its key multi-modal distribution capability, we maintain Al

Mubarak as a Tier II location.

Southern Eurasia is a developing area of interest and USEUCOM is already establishing

a presence in Romania in response. US Army Europe (USAEUR) now has a major training


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range and center of operations in the area around Constanta, Romania. Mobility will be required

to support these and developing operations in the area. A number of options for a Tier III

location appear suitable to take advantage of the seaports on the Black Sea. They include

Odepeni, Romania, Mihail Kogalniceanu Airport, Romania (LRCK), Varna, Bulgaria (LBWN)

and Burgas, Bulgaria (LBBG). All have runways that are more than 8,000 feet in length, are in

close proximity to sea ports (with the exception of Odepeni), and would require some degree of

repairs or construction to make them suitable for transiting MAF aircraft.

A second Tier III recommendation is for Bagram AB, Afghanistan. We anticipate that

our need for a mobility throughput location in the region will endure well past 2025. Military or

stability support will be a hallmark of the region. Despite its high altitude and dangerous

topography, the current infrastructure and planned infrastructure by USCENTCOM makes

Bagram an ideal location for mobility operations. Based on its current and projected distribution

mission, Bagram’s port throughput more closely resembles a Tier II location.

Along the northern route there are numerous locations that support mobility operations,

but are closely tied to existing operations. These locations are essential, but may, in fact, be

temporary and only needed during contingency/wartime operations. RAF Fairford, Kuwait-Ali

Al Salem, Kandahar, Papa Hungary, and Bahrain fall into this category.

The most direct routing to the Horn of Africa and eastern African locations is across the

Iberian Peninsula and through the Mediterranean. Rota, Moron, Sigonella, and Souda Bay lie

close to this central Atlantic routing. While not the most fuel efficient, this central routing

through the Mediterranean has advantages over the northern route. The weather is more

consistently conducive to flying operations and there are fewer international overflight issues.

These advantages make it an ideal route for northern route overflow or restrictions. It is also the

ideal route for commencing operations on the African continent. For instance, the air distance

from Rota direct to Djibouti is slightly over 3,000 NM, easily within reach of all our strategic

airlifters. After a refuel stop in Spain, a C-17 or C-5 could reach to south of the equator in

Africa, as long as fuel is available at their destination.

NAVSTA Rota, paired with Moron AB, provides the anchor for the central Atlantic

route. Presently, Rota is our only European base with 24/7 operations and represents a

tremendous capability for the timely movement of supplies to Southwest Asia. Rota also has the

unique attribute of having a seaport attached to the airfield which allows multi-modal operations

to occur within the perimeter of the base. For these reasons, and because we anticipate an

increase in mobility operations destined for Africa, we suggest that Rota be upgraded from its

Tier II status to a Tier I location by enhancing the maintenance footprint. In essence, this would

entail an enhancement of the maintenance capability (backshop).

Moron AB represents tremendous capability with the largest parking ramp in theater and

no threat of noise-restricted hours. Therefore, we recommend that Moron continue as a Tier III

location. To further enhance its capability, we recommend returning Moron to a 24/7 operation

at least during the summer tourist season. Ensuring unrestricted operations at Moron will mean

splitting the traffic destined for the Iberian Peninsula between the two bases.

Sigonella and Souda Bay present unique issues for the central route. At 4,100NM and

4,500NM respectively, they are too distant for a first leg from the CONUS. However, they are

well within C-17 range from both Afghanistan and Qatar. The real value of Sigonella and Souda

lies in their location in the Mediterranean, extensive Defense Logistics Agency’s warehousing

infrastructure in Sicily, and their proximity to Africa. Access to both locations can be achieved

via relatively unrestricted overflight of the Mediterranean. The Headquarters Defense Logistics


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Agency is building a regional headquarters logistics supply stores on Sicily, which will result in

greater cargo generation for delivery to or from Sigonella. Finally, due to the extensive

European colonial history in sub-Saharan Africa, access to the African continent may be

politically untenable from any number of locations depending on the overflight routes and

destination (Greece, and so Souda Bay, is not among the African colonial powers). Having

alternative locations from which access to the African continent is possible becomes increasingly

important. Consequently, we recommend Sigonella become a Tier II location with the addition

of an air mobility squadron and Souda Bay become an expeditionary location capable of

becoming a Tier III location requiring parking ramp expansion and mobility operations

capabilities. We make this recommendation recognizing that interest in Sigonella as a location

for basing UAVs is increasing. Therefore, we will work closely with USAFE and the Navy to

determine the ability of Sigonella to handle an increased mobility mission.

The central Atlantic route shares many second leg locations with the northern route. For

example, Incirlik and Al Udeid would be second leg Tier II locations while Bagram would be a

second leg Tier III location. A second leg location unique to the central route would be Aviano,

a Tier III location primarily to support Army units in that region.

In addition to those locations mentioned for the northern route and previously mentioned

Souda Bay, another expeditionary central route location would be Cairo West, which is a key

location for numerous USCENTCOM exercises.

Finally, the southern Atlantic route is designed solely to provide mobility support to the

African continent. As previously mentioned, the proposed strategy takes advantage of locations

on the perimeter of the continent. In this regard, the southern route shares many locations with

the central route—Rota, Moron, Sigonella, Souda Bay, and Cairo West.

An additional location, not mentioned as part of the central route, but could be considered

part of that route, is Lajes Air Field. Again, Lajes is a location that fighters find crucial for

crossing the Atlantic; however, due to its proximity to the CONUS, it is infrequently used by

mobility aircraft and only then primarily to support the airfield. Additionally, the Azores are

frequently battered by strong winds during the winter that effectively shuts down operations.

With the anticipated increase in African mobility requirements, Lajes’ role as a portal onto the

African continent may increase. Additionally, since Lajes is an island situated in the Atlantic, it

makes an ideal divert location for aircraft crossing the Atlantic. Consequently, we do not

recommend abandoning Lajes. Although there are locations from which African access is easier

and more effective, Lajes is an important backup location and we recommend maintaining the

option for its use, but downgrading Lajes from its current status to an expeditionary location.

Two locations, unique to the southern routing and essential for airlift coverage of Africa,

are Ascension Island (Wide Awake Field) and Camp Lemonier, Djibouti. Ascension is a British

owned island in the south Atlantic. Its location south of the equator and midway between South

America and Africa makes it ideal for access to west and southwestern Africa. US military

aircraft have used Ascension in the past, and we anticipate no problems for continued use.

However, the increased traffic to support USAFRICOM could involve an expanded parking

ramp and fuel storage. These enhancements, as well as increased use, would need to be

negotiated with the United Kingdom.

Camp Lemonier, Djibouti, is the only permanent infrastructure on the African continent

that this strategy assumes. As such, its importance can’t be overstated. Of all the locations on

the southern route, Djibouti provides the single point of greatest coverage. Using the 3,500NM

point-to-point C-17 range, the entire continent can be accessed. Using the 2,000NM unrefueled


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range, two-thirds of the continent can be accessed. Currently, the airfield has limited mobility

aircraft servicing capability. An enlarged parking ramp and freight handling capability would be

required to establish a Tier III capability as we envision. (Should analysis of the evolving

requirements (to include responsiveness, timeliness, and MHE/personnel required to provide the

needed capability) dictate and political dialogue permit an expeditionary location on the west

coast of Africa, options do exist and will be evaluated.)

The following map graphically depicts the Atlantic ―three-use-two‖ route strategy

described above:

12. SOUTH AMERICAN STRATEGY:

Including South America in a global en route strategy accomplishes two results: it helps

achieve the regional engagement strategy and assists with the mobility routing to Africa.

Unfortunately, a South American engagement strategy that tasks airlift assets is not available.

Until recently, security concerns in South America have focused on the counter-narcotics

mission. That mission has not required the use of strategic airlift in its prosecution.

Recently, USSOUTHCOM has become interested in establishing a location on the South

American continent that could be used both for counter-narcotics operations and as a location

from which mobility operations could be executed. Consequently, with the assistance of AMC


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and USTRANSCOM, USSOUTHCOM has identified Palanquero, Colombia (German Olano

Airfield (SKPQ)), as a cooperative security location (CSL). From this location, nearly half of the

continent can be covered by a C-17 without refueling. Should suitable fuel be available at the

destination, a C-17 could cover the entire continent, with the exception of the Cape Horn region

in Chile and Argentina. Until such time that USSOUTHCOM establishes a more robust theater

engagement plan, the strategy to place a CSL at Palanquero should be sufficient for air mobility

reach on the South American continent.

In conjunction with the aforementioned CSL, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands offer

viable en route locations capable of supporting theater mobility requirements. Both San Juan

and Henry Rohlsen International Airports have resident Air National Guard facilities that

currently support mobility operations into South America. Puerto Rico and the US Virgin

Islands have two of the largest sea ports in the Caribbean, minutes away from their respective

international airports facilitating intermodal operations. Neither location requires international

agreements, customs, or diplomatic clearances for overflight. These two airfields offer ideal hub

locations to support emerging contingency and humanitarian relief operations. Finally, AMC

should work closely with USTRANSCOM to establish contracts or agreements with commercial

concerns for contingency fuel and aircraft support at airfields in more southern reaches of the

continent.

Previously, we discussed using Ascension Island as a portal for access to the African

continent. Routing to Ascension, though, requires an intermediate fuel stop and that stop would

be in the Caribbean or South American region. The distance from Charleston AFB to Ascension

is over 5,100NM, well outside an unrefueled C-17’s range. In the past, AMC aircraft on their

way to Ascension stop in Antigua (V.C. Bird International) to refuel. The distance from

Charleston AFB to Antigua is nearly 1,600NM with the remaining distance to Ascension being

cut to 3,600NM.

USSOUTHCOM, in an attempt to assist with access to Africa, has postulated that

Cayenne, French Guiana, could serve as a possible CSL for an intermediate fuel stop between

the CONUS and Ascension. The distance from Charleston AFB to Cayenne is 2,600NM and the

remaining distance to Ascension is only 2,400NM. USSOUTHCOM has also considered access

to the airport at Recife, Brazil. A C-17 could depart from this location and, provided fuel is

available when they land, cover approximately the same area as an unrefueled C-17 from

Ascension. However, the political relationship with Brazil is not conducive to the necessary

agreements. Furthermore, Recife is 4,100NM from Charleston AFB placing it just outside the

point-to-point distance for a C-17. Therefore, we recommend that USSOUTHCOM continue to

pursue access to the airfield at Cayenne, French Guiana.


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13. PACIFIC STRATEGY:

As discussed, the limited availability of real estate in the Pacific allows few options for

en route locations. Fortunately, the location and political affiliation of Pacific islands provide en

route strategy options to prevent reliance on a single route to the warfighter.

This fact was clearly recognized in 1999 when the PERISC first postulated the ―2-Lose-

1‖ route strategy. Recognizing that one of the routes may be temporarily unavailable due to

inclement weather, the PERISC recommended sizing the locations on the two routes such that

one route could handle the temporary surge of the other being unavailable. Given the limitations

of the region, we agree that this strategy is sound and should be continued.

However, since 1999 the focus areas in this region have expanded to include the

Indonesian islands as a source of political turmoil and geologic instability. Furthermore, the

existing en route locations are subject to refinement to make the system more responsive and

capable. Consequently, we now refer to the strategy in this region as the ―Two Route Plus‖

strategy. The strategy still refers to two primary routes, the Northern and Southern routes. The

―Plus‖ alludes to the fact that our refinement of the strategy enhances what the PERISC

originally proposed in 1999.


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The Northern route more closely follows the great circle routing to the Korean peninsula

and China Sea areas of interest, making it the more fuel efficient routing to two of the three areas

of interest. However, due to its northern orientation, the impact of winter weather is severe and

requires locations along the route to be adequately supplied with deicing and snow removal

equipment. Furthermore, because the Northern routes depend on the Japanese locations of

Misawa, Yokota, and Iwakuni for its second leg stop and that Japan is close to both northerly

areas of interest, the threat from battle damage on Japanese locations is proportionately higher

than at more outlying locations.

The Southern route, on the other hand, is far less fuel efficient and represents an actual

increase in distance to the areas of interest. For example, the distance from Travis AFB to Osan

AB, Korea, using the Northern route is approximately 5,300NM. From Travis to Osan using the

Southern route it is 6,000NM if flying direct from Hickam to Yokota (2 additional flying hours)

or 7,100NM if routing through Guam (4 more flying hours). Typhoons are a threat in many

locations, but particularly at Guam.

Nevertheless, when not threatened by typhoons, the Southern route boasts far more

predictable and favorable flying weather. Support to the Navy is crucial at many of the Pacific

island locations and the threat from enemy action is more remote along the Southern route.

Historically, the flow of Pacific airlift is through the Southern route due to these very issues.

Due, in part, to the basing of C-17s at both Hickam AFB and Elmendorf AFB, the Pacific

has the luxury of two Tier I locations, one on each route. Hickam is manned and has the

infrastructure to provide Tier I capability. This is a crucial capability to mitigate the chokepoints

along the Mid-Pacific route.

Chokepoints are points along the route where there are few, if any, available alternates

should the single location be unavailable. In nearly all instances, a primary location on a route is

paired with a location of lesser capability that can serve as an alternate. For example, Elmendorf

is paired with Eielson, Rota with Moron, and Ramstein with Spangdahlem. However, on the

Southern route, Hickam AFB and Andersen AFB are not paired with alternates. While alternate

locations exist in the Hawaiian Islands for diversion, Hawaii isn’t frequently threatened by

inclement weather and there is very little threat from enemy attack. The need for an alternate

location is less compelling. Consequently, it is prudent to ensure that Hickam maintains a Tier I

capability. Proposed alternate locations for Andersen AFB will be discussed later in this

document.

Elmendorf currently possesses the infrastructure for Tier I capability, but it is not

currently manned to accomplish Tier I activities. Since Eielson is used as an alternate location

and there is a greater likelihood that Northern Pacific routing will not be used due to inclement

weather, the need for Tier I capability is not critical at Elmendorf. Consequently, we suggest

that Elmendorf maintain Tier I infrastructure while maintaining its current manning.

The second legs in the Pacific strategy are considerably more controversial. On the one

hand, the second leg locations on the Island of Japan are somewhat fixed and their tier sizes seem

driven by momentum rather than strategic importance. On the other hand, the second leg

location at Andersen AFB represents perhaps the most significant air mobility chokepoint on the

entire globe.

Currently, there are four en route locations on Japan—Misawa in the north, Yokota near

Tokyo, Iwakuni on a deep-water bay in the south of the main island, and Kadena on the island of

Okinawa. Each has varying degrees of capability with Yokota and Kadena representing the

greatest throughput capability. At the locations other than Yokota, mobility operations are


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considered an adjunct mission to the primary missions. In fact, Iwakuni is a Marine base. AMC

operations at Iwakuni are minimal and are frequently supported with TDY personnel from the

AMS at Yokota. At other times, Marines provide transient aircraft servicing.

Yokota was established post-World War II and maintained as a forward base. Since

WWII, Tokyo has become among the world’s largest cities and the urban sprawl has engulfed

the base. Still, of the four Japanese locations, Yokota’s primary mission, for both PACAF and

AMC, is mobility operations. PACAF maintains C-130 and operational support airlift units at

Yokota and synergies are achieved with AMC mobility throughput. In FY09, construction will

commence on a new mechanized materiel handling system funded nearly entirely by the

Japanese government. Additionally, the base holds a number of USPACOM/PACAF/Joint

Japanese Defense Force headquarters.

However, many challenges exist at Yokota. First, Yokota AB is centrally located in

Japan, but is surrounded by high-density civilian population. In many areas there is no buffer

between the perimeter fence and the civilian population. Additionally departure obstructions

plague the airfield. Second, the regional government routinely makes concerted efforts to

transform Yokota into a joint military/civilian airfield, which would permit civilian use of the

field for freight and passenger service. The US has been successful in staving off these

proposals and, to date, the national government has not supported the prefecture governor’s

proposal for military/civilian dual use. Finally, and most significantly, fuel delivery to the base

is accomplished via railcar. This overland delivery of the airfield’s lifeblood is fraught with

vulnerability and subject to environmental concerns that may make it increasingly politically

unsustainable. Because of these geographic and political constraints, it is prudent to plan for an

alternate location in Japan in the event Yokota become untenable.

An ideal alternate location for Yokota is Iwakuni. Iwakuni’s location on an island

extending into the deep-water Sea of Aki means that only one section of the base perimeter

experiences civilian encroachment, while the rest of the base is surrounded by water. Although

the water boundary limits civilian encroachment, it also limits the ability to expand the base.

Nevertheless, there is a land reclamation project currently underway to build a second runway.

The new 10,000 foot runway is expected to be operational by 2010.


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Perhaps the most promising and useful feature at Iwakuni is the deep-water port attached

to the base availing multi-modal capability comparable to that found at NAS Rota, Spain. This is

a key advantage for any operating location. The ability to trans-load from ship to aircraft or

aircraft to ship maximizes the limited space available in the theater. Furthermore, fuel for the

base is delivered from ship within the confines of the base perimeter, significantly reducing force

protection concerns.

Iwakuni is not without limitations. The most obvious limitation, when compared with

Yokota, is that construction would have to occur to enhance its throughput capability to a Tier II

level. While a new 4,000 square meter passenger terminal is under construction, there is

inadequate freight handling capability. Additionally, the ramp available for mobility aircraft is

limited in size and should be expanded. It is currently capable of only accommodating three

large aircraft. All proposals to expand capability on the base, either with infrastructure or

personnel, would require agreements with the Marines and the Japanese government.

Consequently, we recommend putting the necessary infrastructure in place at Iwakuni to

make it a Tier II location in the event that we can no longer maintain Yokota at that level. At

present, we do not propose drawing down Yokota to a Tier III location. Rather, we suggest that

Yokota remain Tier II subject to continuing reviews. We do not recommend changes to Misawa

or Kadena.

Andersen AFB, Guam is a Pacific chokepoint of key concern for numerous reasons.

First, it tends to be a common target for Pacific typhoons. Second, the entire island will soon

experience an expanded military presence under the auspices of the Guam Integrated Military


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Development Plan. Third, with the addition of new flying missions, there will be an increased

demand on fuel, which originates at the naval port on the opposite side of the island. Fourth,

should a large-scale regional conflict arise, Guam could very well be subject to battle damage

threats, especially given the confluence of military units gathered on the island. The impact of

these concerns is an increasing threat to airlift throughput at Andersen AFB.

Several issues arise when considering this threat. The existing infrastructure at Guam is

inadequate to support the expanding missions. A new freight terminal to be constructed in the

AMS Campus is currently programmed and will need proper advocacy to compete for MILCON

funds and remain in the FYDP. A new passenger terminal to replace the woefully inadequate

existing terminal is planned and coordinated with the host wing, though it, too, will require

command advocacy to compete in the POM. The current terminals are capable of handling 100

passengers and one C-17 cargo load. Also, the mobility parking ramp should be expanded to

permit additional parking and an accessible footprint for performing required or preventative

maintenance.

Still, these enhancements won’t obviate the concerns raised by weather, encroachment,

fuel delivery, or battle damage. Consequently, we believe it is prudent to seek a paired location

for Andersen—a location close enough to allow continued mobility throughput to Guam during

periods when the base is unavailable during weather, high ops tempo, or fuel demand.

Available airfields in the region are few and far between. Fortunately, at a little over

100NM north of Guam lie the islands of Tinian and Saipan. These islands are in the

Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas, which are US possessions. Both islands have

airports, though Saipan’s is the larger of the two. Saipan’s international airport has an 8,700-foot

runway and adequate contingency parking area for wide-body aircraft (two wide-body and three

narrow-body spots). It is close enough to Andersen that if mobility operations needed to be

diverted, they could continue at Saipan, perhaps with a transload to another aircraft to ferry their

cargo to Andersen.

Locating an expeditionary capability at Saipan would require conducting negotiations to

secure guaranteed access and potentially constructing the necessary infrastructure to ensure the

ability to service mobility aircraft, e.g., enlarging the fuel storage capacity. We don’t

recommend a permanent manpower presence at Saipan. Rather, should Saipan be necessary due

to the loss of Andersen for mobility aircraft, personnel from Guam could deploy to Saipan to

establish satellite operations, thus allowing mobility operations to continue on the Southern

route. We will work closely with PACAF to secure access to Saipan or a different, more suitable

location.

Finally, the areas of interest in the south China Seas and Indonesian/Philippine

Archipelago are currently covered by several small locations—Clark, on the Philippines, U-

Taphao in Thailand, Singapore, and Richmond, Australia. The capability inherent in these

locations is based on small throughput and infrequent use. Based on anticipated interest in the

area and seemingly routine natural disasters requiring extensive humanitarian relief, we

recommend establishing a location in the region with more robust capabilities than

expeditionary.

The most robust of these locations is currently the detachment at Singapore’s Paya Lebar

airport. The key mission for this AMS detachment is to service airlift transporting supplies and

support to the large naval port on Singapore. Air access to Singapore is relatively benign from

the east. However, due to overflight restrictions imposed by numerous countries in the region,

departures from Singapore heading westbound require circuitous routing to avoid country


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overflight. Furthermore, the ability to transit hazardous cargo through Singapore is very tightly

regulated.

We presently have an expeditionary location at U-Taphao, Thailand. This location has

more than double the wide-body, narrow-body, and hazardous cargo parking spots than

Singapore and has seven fuel hydrant parking spots. Westbound overflight from U-Taphao is

essentially unrestricted. The capacity to handle large airlift flows to the region far exceeds that

available at Singapore. The infrastructure required to establish U-Taphao as a Tier III location

would be minimal.

Another location in the region to consider is Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam (VVCR).

Relations between the US and Vietnam have warmed significantly over the years. It may now be

possible to pursue negotiations with the Vietnamese for use of an airfield and basing of

personnel. Cam Ranh is a joint use, military and civilian, airfield with 10,000 foot runway and

considerable parking apron space. Arrival at Cam Ranh from the east involves no overflight

restrictions while movement to or from the west involves only minor restrictions. The area of

C-17 coverage in the area is comparable to that available from U-Taphao. Based on these facts

and given the warming relations with Vietnam, we believe that Cam Ranh presents an ideal

opportunity for future basing should the need arise.

Consequently, we recommend keeping Singapore as a location for support of the Navy

port while establishing U-Taphao as a Tier III location to serve as a central location for access

into Indonesia and the South China Sea. Furthermore, we believe that Da Nang airport should be

held in reserve as a potential resource should the need arise and recommend continued

diplomacy with Vietnam for that purpose.


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14. OTHER LOCATIONS:

An issue related to the en route, but not technically considered part of it, are those

locations most prominently used for fighter ferry missions—Coronets. The most obvious

location is Wake Island Airfield. This location is strategically located for fighters transiting the

Pacific. Without it, they would need to change their routing and would require additional A/Rs

to maintain minimum fuel levels in flight. This fact elevates the importance of Wake for AMC.

Very likely, without it AMC would be required to devote more tankers or risk longer boom times

to these fighter ferry missions. Admittedly, AMC aircraft do land at Wake. For example, from

1 Dec 07 through 30 Nov 08, three C-17s, eight KC-10s and fifteen KC-135s transited Wake

Island. While this does not rise to the level of an en route location necessitating AMC manpower

or equipment, it does not diminish the importance of the island airfield for AMC. Consequently,

maintaining Wake Island as a key Coronet mission location represents a cost and safety risk

avoidance for AMC.

15. LOCATIONS REQUIRING CHANGES:


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While much of this strategy uses existing infrastructure in its present configuration, the

strategy does recommend enhancements and reductions around the globe. To better understand

the recommended changes, we must first clearly understand today’s en route system as it’s

structured in the tier definitions. The following table classifies each of today’s en routes

locations with the most appropriate tier.

Today’s En Route System

(See the appendices for a complete list of en route locations including sites for which there is

contract oversight.)

Now, given the proposed strategy, the en route system in 2025 would be structured as

depicted in the following table:


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2025 En Route System

Tier I

Tier II

Tier III

Expeditionary

Ramstein

Spangdahlem

Mildenhall

Fairford

Singapore

Rota

Incirlik

Bagram

Christchurch

Saipan

Hickam

Al Udeid

Aviano

Kandahar

Lajes

Sigonella

Djibouti

Papa, HGY

Cam Ranh

Andersen

Eielson

Bahrain

Elmendorf

Misawa

Souda Bay

Iwakuni

Moron

Cairo West

Kadena

U-Taphao

Aruba

Yokota

Diego Garcia

Ascension

Kuwait-Al Mubarak

Richmond

Palanquero

Constanta

Antigua

Osan

Clark

Wake

Kuwait-Ali Al Salem

Kunsan

In the Atlantic ―Three-Use-Two‖ strategy the following highlights the proposed changes

that will require dollars or manpower investment:

  • · Reduce Mildenhall to a Tier III location (an action already planned under the approved

21 EMTF Transformation Plan)

  • · Establish Bagram, Afghanistan, as a Tier III location; support USCENTCOM plans for

strategic airlift ramp expansion and permanent infrastructure

  • · Expand ramp and fuels infrastructure at Ascension Island
  • · Invest in permanent infrastructure at Al Udeid
  • · Expand ramp and establish permanent infrastructure at Djibouti as a Tier III location
  • · Plus-up maintenance capability at Rota to elevate it to Tier I capability
  • · Establish Tier II capability at Sigonella
  • · Build wide-body capable ramp at Souda Bay
  • · Establish expeditionary capability at Papa, Hungary

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The changes and required enhancements resulting from the Pacific ―Two Route Plus‖

strategy are as follows:

  • · Stand up Tier II infrastructure at Iwakuni by expanding the airlift ramp and Material

Handling Capability, but don’t man at Tier II capability (similar to Elmendorf)

  • · Establish Tier III capability at U-Taphao
  • · Establish expeditionary access and capability at Saipan

16. COMMERCIAL AIRLIFT

Undeniably, our commercial partners provide a tremendous capability to our mobility

system. Their role in carrying both cargo and passengers frees our organic fleet to carry the

outsized cargo needed by the warfighter. Also, since user’s airlift requirements far exceed the

capacity of the organic fleet, the commercial carriers are often able to help AMC fulfill its

highest priority movements while providing the capacity to move lesser priority requirements.

So, it would seem obvious, given the critical nature of commercial airlift, that the en route

system should accommodate the commercial capability.

However, by agreement, the commercial carriers contracted to AMC only use military

facilities under strictly controlled circumstances. For the most part, commercial carriers use

civilian terminals of their choosing when possible. This is to their benefit, since it is far more

likely for commercial terminals to have some maintenance capability for like aircraft.

Additionally, commercial carriers require FAA-certified parts available at commercial airports.

17. KEYS TO SUCCESS:

For a strategy to succeed, it must be implemented at the operational level, which implies

occasional subordination of operational efficiencies to the greater strategic need and desired

long-term effect. Among the things learned over the years is that if locations aren’t used, they

will be lost, either to budget cutting measures or to host nation designs. For example, the closure

of Zaragoza AB in Spain in 1996 by USAFE to meet budgetary constraints, and the Spanish

decision in the same year to deny the US access to Torrejon AB. The natural inclination, for

ease of operations and to minimize costs, is to consolidate operations in as few locations as

possible. We see this inclination reflected in the fact that approximately 75 percent of today’s

Atlantic operations flow through Ramstein AB. The notion is that even though the planners want

the other locations for contingencies and surges, the fewer locations they have to plan to, the

better. This, unfortunately, opens the other locations to scrutiny from those looking for

budgetary savings today instead of looking at the strategy and needs of the future. Consequently,

to secure access to locations required during contingencies or surges, we must be willing to

operate in a distributed manner, even if this means a loss of day-to-day efficiency. This requires

exercising the assets at those locations deemed necessary in the strategy. Should we not

distribute our flow through all the en route locations and subsequently lose access to them, we

have hindered our own ability to operate and have short-changed what the national defense

expects of us.

To a large degree, any en route strategy will rely on the hospitality and support of

regional services, MAJCOMs, and CCDRs. It is imperative that these services, MAJCOMs and


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CCDRs agree with and support the strategy. Furthermore, the strategy should be shared with

NATO for the purpose of coordination with NATO Capability Packages (CP). Should NATO

see benefits for their CPs, the possibility exists for NATO funds to help secure some of the

recommended enhancements. Consequently, it is crucial that this strategy be ―taken on the road‖

to both inform and secure concurrence from the regional players.

The strategy will also involve Host Nation Notification to those nations where changes

are being recommended. In some instances, host nation funding may be secured for some of the

enhancements. In others, host nations are sensitive to changes in US military presence. A

comprehensive diplomatic engagement strategy is necessary to ensure the ability to prosecute the

strategy.

Access to many global locations will occur via commercial concerns. For example,

South America and Africa, with little or no enduring US military presence, will rely on

commercial airports to service AMC aircraft. AMC should support USTRANSCOM efforts to

secure cooperative security location agreements with these and other countries and cooperative

commercial contracts around the world.

Finally, the strategy cannot be static. It must adjust and adapt to changes in the National

priorities, political landscape and fiscal constraints. To that end, we recommend that every two

years, the command undertake a comprehensive review of the en route strategy. The results may

be to continue with this strategy, an adjustment to these recommendations or a complete


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